Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –0.7% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 5,945 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +2.2% across 2,249 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. We use Movelor heavily to make college football picks. We use kenpom heavily to make college basketball picks. We use FPI heavily to make NFL futures picks, but not spreads and totals.
We’ve got college football and college basketball for tonight. Here’s the context on each.
Single-game college basketball bets: On the season, we’re 7–6. We’re up 0.41 units and we’re up 3%. We’ve won six of our last eight.
Single-game college football bets: On the season, we’re 65–64–3. We’re down 4.42 units and we’re down 3%.
Wichita State vs. Liberty
As with last night, we think Liberty’s clearly the better team in this one. We like the chance they win, and we like the chance they don’t win by one, two, or three.
Pick: Liberty –4 (–116). Low confidence.
USF @ UTSA
UTSA head coach Jeff Traylor is reportedly interviewing for the Texas A&M job, and that seems to have pushed this line downwards. Is distraction a real concern? Yes. But it doesn’t always work out the way it’s assumed to be headed. We’ll take a shot at the round number.
Pick: UTSA –14 (–115). Low confidence.
