Editor’s Note: Over a sample size of 646 completed bets (this doesn’t include outstanding futures picks), Joe’s picks published here and back at All Things NIT, our former site, have an average return on investment of 12% when weighted by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high). This, compared to other picks consistently published online, is very good. It’s also good when compared to conventional annual investments, and instead of taking a year to bring that return, it’s taking between three hours and seven months. In short, Joe’s got a good track record.
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Three picks tonight.
As always:
- Lines come from the Vegas Consensus at the time this is written, or the best approximation I can find of it online.
- Data and predictions from KenPom, FanGraphs, Baseball Savant, Team Rankings, and ESPN is/are often used and/or cited.
- The blurbs often aren’t justifications of the picks. Often, they’re instead just notes about something or someone related to the pick. Something that interests me. I don’t explain the picks because in general, the rationale behind each pick is the same, so it would be boring to say over and over again that the numbers I use project a good return on investment and I see no red flags significant enough to make me hold off.
College Basketball
Alabama @ Rhode Island
Alabama is experiencing a lot of change this year, with Nate Oats bringing in an entirely new style of play to go with a very new lineup—one of the youngest in all of Division I.
Rhode Island is also fairly young. Cyril Langevine and Jeff Dowtin are the only seniors to have seen the court so far, with Fatts Russell the only junior. But while the Rams don’t have a wealth of experience, they do have a wealth of continuity: KenPom’s method of measuring the phenomenon has URI’s minutes as the sixth-most continuous in the country.
There’s an argument to be made that continuity could matter early in a season. In this case, though, that argument’s irrelevant. Rhode Island isn’t a better team than Alabama, but they’re close enough that home-court advantage makes the difference. Add in the fact that Herbert Jones is questionable again tonight for the Tide and URI becomes an easy play as a home underdog. As with almost all of these, it’s a low-confidence play, but their chances are certainly better than 50/50.
Pick: Rhode Island to win (+105). Low confidence.
Minnesota @ Utah
Minnesota is young. They lost a lot of minutes and points from last year’s group. That was probably expected. Which makes it interesting that the powers that be took on such an ambitious non-conference slate, choosing to throw their youths into the fire.
The Big Ten’s conference season is difficult and long. It leaves room for only ten non-conference games, one of which is absorbed by the Big Ten/ACC challenge. Nevertheless, Minnesota found room to schedule Oklahoma at a neutral site, Oklahoma State in Tulsa, Butler on the road, DePaul at home, and Utah on the road. They have only three opponents ranked worse than 101st in KenPom’s current ratings, and only one beyond the 200 line.
All of which makes winning tonight very important. In a year like this year, the NIT is probably the reasonable goal for the Gophers, and as Penn State showed last season, there are win-loss records that can blot out every other rating that says you’re an NIT team.
The Gophers have good reason to be optimistic, though. Utah is younger. Utah is that team ranked 101st by KenPom right now. And Isaiah Ihnen, who makes his debut tonight for Minnesota after missing the first three games with a wrist injury, figures to help counter the Utes’ size. This is one of Richard Pitino’s team’s better opportunities to grab what should turn out to be a second-quadrant win. Whether they’ll seize it is about a tossup.
Pick: Minnesota +5 (-110). Low confidence.
College Football
Fresno State @ San Diego State
San Diego State might be the Group of Five leader right now if they could just score some points. Their defense is rated the 19th-best in the FBS by SP+, but their offense is rated the sixth-worst, and has only topped thirty points in one game—a September contest with woeful New Mexico State.
Fresno State has the opposite problem, albeit not in as extreme a manner. Their offense is rated 31st-best by SP+, while their defense comes in at 105th. That isn’t as bad as New Mexico State’s, but tonight’s an opportunity for the Aztecs to get on the board. It’s also far and away the toughest test that defense has gotten so far.
Pick: Over 43.5 (-110). Low confidence.
