Editor’s Note: For almost three years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. There have been moments of elation (the Nationals winning the 2019 World Series). There have been moments of frustration (the Dodgers’ 2020 NLCS comeback). Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 2% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 1,789 published picks, not including pending futures. 2% doesn’t sound amazing, but relative to what else you get on the internet?
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. KenPom is heavily used in making college basketball picks. ESPN’s SP+ is heavily used in making college football picks of all kinds, and FPI is used in making conference championship futures picks.
We’ll get to tonight’s college basketball, but let’s go through tonight and tomorrow’s college football first (check back tomorrow for more college hoops).
Cincinnati @ South Florida
The narrative that Cincinnati won’t blow teams out has made its way to the market, which seems to be putting a lot of stock into recent close games with Tulsa and Navy and hardly any stock into recent three-or-more-score wins against Tulane, Temple, and even UCF, whom the Bearcats beat by five touchdowns.
Cincy should roll tonight.
Pick: Cincinnati -23.5 (-110). Low confidence.
Wyoming @ Boise State
Boise State’s had an up and down year, highlighted by last week’s blowout of then-ranked Fresno State and lowlighted back in mid-October by a home loss to Air Force. The thought behind this line seems to be that they’ve figured things out, which is a lot to take away from one game over an oddly-ranked team. While Wyoming won’t be able to make this a mudbath, playing on the blue turf on a pretty night in Idaho, they should be able to keep it close.
Pick: Wyoming +14 (-110). Low confidence.
UConn @ Clemson
Clemson might shut UConn out. That’s basically the bet here. Beyond that, Clemson’s offense is bad, but the Tigers have scored 30 each of the last two weeks, and UConn might give the defense a chance to score some itself. 42-0 is the hope.
Pick: Clemson -41 (-110). Low confidence.
Hawaii @ UNLV
My best guess here is that the market thinks that because Hawaii will be kicking off at 11 AM Hawaii Time…they’ll be tired? I don’t know. This doesn’t make much sense.
Pick: Hawaii -3.5 (-110). Low confidence.
Nevada @ San Diego State
Staying in the Mountain West, the narrative here is that Nevada will be able to throw on San Diego State.
I’m not sure where anyone’s getting that idea.
San Diego State’s allowed the fourth-fewest yards per pass attempt in the FBS. Only Georgia, Cincinnati, and—oh no, Washington’s offense is so bad—Washington have been better. Nevada’s near the top in total passing offense, but their efficiency is rather medium.
Nevada has a shot at winning this. A good shot, even. But it’s unlikely to come from putting up 400 aerial yards.
Pick: San Diego State -3 (-110). Low confidence.
Utah State @ San José State
And since we evidently really disagree with the market on the MWC…one more for us.
Utah State’s 7-2. SP+’s postgame win expectancies say they should be 4.1-4.9. Don’t put too much stock in overall wins and losses.
Pick: San José State -4.5 (-110). Low confidence.
***
Utah State vs. Richmond
Sean Bairstow’s out for Utah State, who lost a semi-embarrassing one at home earlier this week to UC-Davis. It’s a rough situation for the Aggies (the Utah State Aggies—great situation for the UC-Davis Aggies). Projections are understandably low.
Where the odds go wrong here is, well, two things. First, Bairstow didn’t play that many minutes last year for Utah State. He should be a moderate contributor this year, but models shouldn’t fully know that yet. Second, Richmond isn’t that good. They weren’t that good last year, either. They beat Kentucky, who was about as good, it turned out, as VCU (if we’re being generous to Kentucky). VCU’s a solid program, but Richmond beats them all the time and we don’t start throwing four points their way on the spread.
Again, Richmond should win this game. But the line’s off.
Pick: Utah State to win +210. Low confidence.
Louisiana-Lafayette @ Southern Miss
Walyn Napper left Southern Miss’s opener on Tuesday and was reportedly limping as he did so. If he’s out tonight, that’s rough for Southern Miss, but given the Golden Eagles were playing an NAIA team, it’s possible it was just precautionary, which this picture, possibly taken yesterday, would support. Even if Napper’s out, the line here is way off. This would be pretty close to a tossup without him.
Pick: Southern Miss to win +130. Low confidence.
SIU-Edwardsville @ Chicago State
Hell yeah we’re picking Chicago State.
Look. Chicago State is always awful. We know that. They haven’t won more than six games in a season since 2015, when they won eight. But there’s some reason to think the uncertainty should be higher with this team.
Chicago State is almost a completely new team from last year’s, which only played nine games, opting out of the season in December. They’re still rated as the second-worst team in Division I by KenPom. But if you were to construct a Division I team from scratch…couldn’t you be at least on par with the third-worst Division I team? Maybe that’s a stretch, but there are some bad D-I programs out there.
The Cougars are 1-0, having beaten D-I newcomer St. Thomas on Tuesday at home. They’re a deserved underdog tonight. But KenPom has them 20% likely to win, and I’ll trust KenPom over the market when it comes to things like this uncertainty.
Pick: Chicago State to win +450. Low confidence.
North Florida @ Grand Canyon
North Florida played both Tuesday and Wednesday in Texas, losing to Tech and A&M. They’ve had one day of rest, and it was a travel day.
That’s likely overblown.
These are 18-23 year-olds, and the Ospreys run ten deep. They could give Grand Canyon a bit of a game.
Pick: North Florida +12 (-110). Medium confidence.
Brown @ North Carolina
Why, exactly, is UNC ranked so highly in the polls? They have talent, sure, but most of the ACC has talent, and we aren’t out here putting Virginia Tech in the top 20. I don’t know. Maybe they’ll pan out. But they aren’t a team you can guarantee to blow the doors off the gym against Ivy League competition. Even mediocre Ivy League competition.
Pick: Brown +23.5 (-110). Medium confidence.
