Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -1.7% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 4,338 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +2.9% across 1,602 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. For futures bets (in both sports and politics) and motorsports bets, odds are taken from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline as our best approximation of the Vegas consensus, which isn’t currently/accurately available online. KenPom is heavily used in making college basketball picks. FiveThirtyEight’s SPI is heavily used in making soccer futures picks. ESPN’s FPI is heavily used in making NFL futures picks.
College of Charleston @ North Carolina
Charleston likes to run, and UNC might run with them, but even if you run, you still have to make the baskets, and I’m not sure UNC’s going to let Charleston do too much of that tonight. Charleston got Chattanooga earlier this week by generating second chances and getting to the line, and maybe I’m giving Hubert Davis too much credit, but I’d imagine those are going to be focuses for the Tar Heels after they struggled in those exact arenas against UNC-Wilmington on Monday. This is a high, high total. I don’t think we get there.
Pick: Under 163 (-105). Low confidence.
Bryant @ Dartmouth
There’s a lot of excitement around Bryant, who brought in one of the best transfer classes in the country and put up 147 points against a non-Division-I team on Monday. Don’t expect 1.71 points per possession tonight, even if Dartmouth’s defense isn’t very good.
Bryant might have a great year. They do have guys, and it’s not impossible that they’ll challenge Vermont atop the A-East. But we’re a long way from them proving that, and with Dartmouth the home team, I like the Big Green to at least keep it close.
Pick: Dartmouth +5.5 (-110). Low confidence.
