Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –0.6% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 5,918 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +2.2% across 2,249 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. We use Movelor heavily to make college football picks. We use kenpom heavily to make college basketball picks. We use FPI heavily to make NFL futures picks, but not spreads and totals.
It’s college football and college basketball tonight. Here’s the context on each.
Single-game college basketball bets: On the season, we’re 1–4. We’re down 3.09 units. It’s early.
Single-game college football bets: On the season, we’re 60–56–2. We’re down 0.97 units. We won’t get profitable tonight, but we’re hopeful for where we’ll stand at weekend’s end.
Yale @ Gonzaga
Steele Venters is a great basketball player, and we’re sad he’s out this year. We do, though, think Gonzaga is in a good position to replace him in the lineup. He’s a bit of a defensive liability, and his scoring fits Gonzaga’s offense best in a complimentary role. He would have been quite the luxury, but he’d be a luxury nonetheless. We like Gonzaga to still be Gonzaga, post-Timme and without Venters.
Pick: Gonzaga –12 (–105). Low confidence.
North Texas @ SMU
SMU smartly understands that its path to national success is to run up the score, and they’ve been doing that. North Texas is figuring things out offensively at times but still has defensive issues. This should turn into a track meet, even if only one team ends up doing most of the sprinting.
Pick: Over 65 (–110). Low confidence.
