Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -3.8% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 2,821 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of 0.3% across 762 completed high and medium-confidence picks.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. For futures bets and motorsports bets, odds are taken from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline as our best approximation of the Vegas consensus, which isn’t currently/accurately available online. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
Gelo almost hit it big last night, with the Predators taking the Avalanche to overtime. A narrow miss, but it did hit on its total again, bringing it to 6-2 on the postseason, with a 4-0 record on over/unders. More from it today, more MLB futures, we’ll have F1 and NASCAR bets tomorrow or Sunday as we keep the hockey bets going through the weekend. For those scaling at home, we began with 520 units set aside to be bet in the regular season on baseball futures (with 520 more in reserve for hedging) and 100 units set aside for NHL futures (with 100 available for hedging there as well).
NL Central
We have a fairly diverse division portfolio, and the likelihood is that it’ll turn out well. With a Dodgers-sized hole in the NL West, though, and some vulnerability in scenarios in which the White Sox sin the AL Central, we’d like to maximize profitable scenarios. The Brewers are, right now, the likeliest division winner in baseball, and they’re available at good value. We’ll try to run up the score a little bit here.
Pick: Milwaukee to win -220. Medium confidence.
Pick: Milwaukee to win -220. Medium confidence.
Carolina @ Boston
There’s an assumption that the Bruins, being a solid hockey team, will finally grab a win now that the series moves back to Boston. That might be right. But Gelo, which has also liked the Hurricanes (and Predators, as a counterpoint or supporting point depending how you take last night) in Games 1 and 2, likes Carolina again here.
Pick: Carolina to win +112. Low confidence.
Minnesota @ St. Louis
As with the Hurricanes and Predators, Gelo’s made its stance pretty clear on a few totals. Monday, it hit on this under. It was close to recommending it again on Wednesday, but in a tight one, it leaned more towards the Oilers and Kings. Today, it’s back here. We’ll ride it.
Pick: Under 6.5 (-119). Low confidence.
Edmonton @ Los Angeles
We’re adding an extra under here, as a little heat check. Gelo’s gone 4-0 on totals so far, all have been picked from this window (somewhere around half a goal’s difference between Gelo’s projection and the line), these odds aren’t outrageous. If we lose it, we’re ok with that. Gotta see if we can steal an extra eighty percent of a unit, though.
Pick: Under 6.5 (-123). Low confidence.
First Round: New York Rangers vs. Pittsburgh
With home ice advantage, Gelo views the Penguins as 46.2% likely to win this series, which—at these odds—is enough.
Pick: Pittsburgh to win +145. Low confidence.
Eastern Conference
Nevertheless, there’s value available elsewhere on the Rangers. This gives us one future apiece on ten of the sixteen playoff teams, with the prior one giving us at least one future on a team in every series but that between the Leafs and the Lightning (the Panthers, Avalanche, Flames, and Bruins are our other holes, indicating the high-upside, high-risk, longshot-heavy situation we’re currently in—we’ll see if we can change that soon).
Pick: New York Rangers to win +950. Low confidence.
