Editor’s Note: Joe Stunardi is our resident guy-who-knows-numbers. He’d say not to read too much into this, but over a sample size of 201 completed bets (this doesn’t include outstanding futures picks), his picks published here and back at All Things NIT have had an average return on investment of 3% when weighted by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high), meaning he’s about as successful as a bettor who wins 54% of their straight bets.
As always, use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose following Joe’s picks. At the same time, though, you’re also responsible for any money you win.
Similarly, if you have a gambling problem, or even think you might have a gambling problem, get help. If you need help getting help, reach out to us at allthingsnit@gmail.com.
Three picks for tonight’s games.
As always:
- Lines come from the Vegas Consensus at the time this is written.
- FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, Baseball Savant, and Spotrac are all great.
- The writeups for each pick aren’t justifications. The justification for each is that the numbers I’m using indicate its expected payout is positive by more than a standard deviation or two. The writeups are just words about the teams playing the games.
Washington @ Philadelphia
While lacking the sheer number of injured players boasted by the Yankees, the Nationals are dealing with a brutal slate of injuries of their own. Anthony Rendon, Trea Turner, and Ryan Zimmerman are all on the 10-day IL, and Juan Soto is listed as day-to-day.
Still, even with Bryce Harper gone and half their starting lineup unable to take the field, the Nationals lie within striking distance in the East. Sure, they’re four games under .500, but their run differential is only -5, and they’ll have plenty of chances to gain ground in a thickly packed division.
To gain ground, it would help Washington to get more out of Victor Robles, a top-five prospect who raked (131 wRC+) over 21 games at the end of last season.
So far this year, Robles is only posting a 98 wRC+, close to the league average, and he’s striking out in 30.3% of plate appearances, far beyond the 18.2% he posted last year or his totals in the minor leagues.
With Robles’ speed, contact may be enough to make things work. His BABIP is .333, not out of line with what he posted in the minors and on the fringe of plausibly sustainable for a man who gets down the line like he does. But there have been flashes of power, too, with five encouraging home runs so far this year.
It’d be unreasonable to expect Robles to fully replace Bryce Harper, or to come close to replicating Juan Soto’s breakout 2018. But an above-average wRC+ combined with strong defensive play would go a long way towards putting playoff baseball in our nation’s capital.
Pick: Washington to win +155. Low confidence.
Minnesota @ New York (AL)
It’s much too early to be talking about Cy Young candidates, but if odds are available, don’t be surprised to see James Paxton near the top. His 3.38 ERA over six starts isn’t breathtaking, but he’s got a 2.26 FIP driven down by his opponents’ .355 BABIP against him. If you could take one pitcher to throw a no-hitter in their next start, Paxton wouldn’t be a bad one to choose.
But Paxton’s contributions when he’s on the mound are tempered by his ability to stay on the mound. He’s missed time in five straight seasons with injuries, and while some of those came from freak line drives striking him in the arm, he’s also strained a variety of muscles.
Whatever the cause of these injuries, the Yankees don’t seem too concerned about overworking him, as he’s averaging just over 99 pitches per start so far this year. With a bullpen as good as theirs, this seems like it might be unnecessary, but the Yankees know more about Paxton and their own bullpen than you or I do.
We’ll see.
Pick: New York (AL) to win -150. Low confidence.
Toronto @ Texas
The Rangers are good? Or at least decent?
It’s hard to say.
Over the month of April, Texas played .500 baseball, posting a run differential of +9 over 28 games. They play in the American League, where six teams control 94% of playoff potential (according to FanGraphs’ odds), so don’t expect to see them in October, but keep an eye on their older players. Lance Lynn is signed through 2021, but Logan Forsythe, Asdrubal Cabrera, and Hunter Pence are all on one-year deals, and Mike Minor and Shin-Soo Choo are each only tied up through 2020. If the playoff race is out of reach come July, all might be on the move, and the better they play now, the more they’ll help the Rangers when the contention window finally comes back around.
Making things really interesting is Elvis Andrus, whose .410 BABIP should be noted, but whose 1.6 fWAR after contributing only 1.2 fWAR in an injury-shortened 2018 is eye-popping, nevertheless.
Andrus is signed through 2022, with two options controlled by Andrus (at least through the lens of teams who might consider trading for him). At 30 years old, Andrus is unlikely to ever be much better than he was in 2017 (or 2011-2012), but even with the hefty price tag, he could be a valuable addition to a team looking to add an infielder with a big bat in a couple months.
Pick: Toronto to win +147. Low confidence.
