Editor’s Note: For about two and a half years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. There have been moments of elation (the Nationals winning the 2019 World Series, the first two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). There have been moments of frustration (the Dodgers’ 2020 NLCS comeback, the second two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 1.0% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 1,433 published picks, not including pending futures. And while 1.0% might not sound enormous, you can do a lot with it over time.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
One future today, one game pick. The future odds come from Bovada, like they usually do, because there isn’t a good Vegas consensus online for futures in terms of currency and accuracy. (Can you use “currency” in that way?)
We’ll start with the future.
AL Central
The Twins are nine games out in their division. They are in fourth place, closer to the Tigers than to anyone else. But their run differential’s only -15, they’ve battled the coronavirus, Kenta Maeda and Byron Buxton are out and won’t be out forever, and they’re three games into a thirteen-game stretch in which they only play the Orioles and the Royals.
They might sell. The value on this might go to zero within a month, even before they sell. But they also might come back and make this interesting, especially with each team above them either significantly flawed or managed by Tony La Russa (and thereby significantly flawed).
As far as how this fits in our portfolio…
We already have a bet on Cleveland at +1000. We also have one on Kansas City at +1800. With this one placed, we’ll need the White Sox to drop to -225 if we want to corner the market. That’s not especially likely, with them currently at -325. But we could also nearly corner it right now if we wanted to, and with better than a 50% chance of profiting in four of the other five divisions, we just don’t want to hamstring our value that way. The Tigers aren’t going to win the Central. This gives us a complete, clean, three-unit bet with high upside on the White Sox coughing it up. If they even start to, we can always lock ourselves into profit if desired.
Pick: Minnesota to win +1600. Low confidence.
Kansas City @ Minnesota
All of that said, Kris Bubic has been great and Randy Dobnak has not been great and this line is not adequately accounting for those two things.
Pick: Kansas City to win +145. Low confidence.
