Editor’s Note: For about two and a half years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. There have been moments of elation (the Nationals winning the 2019 World Series, the first two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). There have been moments of frustration (the Dodgers’ 2020 NLCS comeback, the second two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 1.0% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 1,422 published picks, not including pending futures. And while 1.0% might not sound enormous, you can do a lot with it over time.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
Futures odds, as usual, come from Bovada due to the lack of a current and accurate Vegas consensus. First, though:
Texas @ Houston
With Zack Greinke on the mound for the Astros, this is one of the more assumable results in baseball. It’s still only about a 70% likely Astros win, which isn’t all that likely in the grand scheme, but it’s about as good as you can get, and it presents a little bit of value, which is rare with odds this short.
Pick: Houston to win -220. Low confidence.
Washington @ Arizona
If you go by quality of contact and use xERA, Riley Smith’s been a little worse than his ERA’s indicated. If you go by the number of balls in the field of play and use FIP, Riley Smith’s been a little better than his ERA’s indicated. Either way, you’re working with a small sample size, and his overall projection’s the best bet we have. That projection makes him and the Diamondbacks ever-so-slightly valuable tonight.
Pick: Arizona +1.5 (+105). Low confidence.
AL East Champion
We’ve still got that 20-to-1 Red Sox future lying around, and it still feels great, but there’s value on the Yankees right now. They’re the favorites, and they’ve been the favorites over the field for all but five days this season over at FanGraphs. They’ll be buyers at the deadline, the market’s down on them overall…it’s an easy play. This doesn’t corner the AL East market for us, but if the Blue Jays fade a little bit, we’ll be up over 85% likely to profit in this division, which we’ll take in mid-May.
Pick: New York -130. Medium confidence.
