Editor’s Note: Joe Stunardi is our resident guy-who-knows-numbers. He’d downplay how good this is, but over a sample size of 226 completed bets (this doesn’t include outstanding futures picks), his picks published here and back at All Things NIT have had an average return on investment of 1% when weighted by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high), meaning he’s about as successful as a bettor who wins 53% of their straight bets.
As always, use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose following Joe’s picks. At the same time, though, you’re also responsible for any money you win.
Similarly, if you have a gambling problem, or even think you might have a gambling problem, get help. If you need help getting help, reach out to us at allthingsnit@gmail.com.
Four picks for today’s games.
As always:
- Lines come from the Vegas Consensus at the time this is written.
- FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, Baseball Savant, and Spotrac are all great.
- The writeups for each pick aren’t justifications. The justification for each is that the numbers I’m using indicate its expected payout is positive by more than a standard deviation or two. The writeups are just words about the teams playing the games.
Milwaukee @ Chicago (NL)
Gio González was a late addition to the 2019 Milwaukee Brewers, signing in April for a modest $2 million after being released by the Yankees (modest is relative, of course).
His season is only two starts old, but those starts—both against the Mets—have been solid, with nine strikeouts, one walk, and three runs between them in a combined ten and a third innings.
The Brewers shouldn’t expect him to be their ace, but he’ll be serviceable, and conventional wisdom suggests he might be able to make more of his declining physical tools than a pitcher of lesser experience. If he can turn in five inning starts with an ERA around 4.00, the Brewers will be getting their money’s worth, and possibly more.
Pick: Chicago (NL) to win -120. Low confidence.
New York (AL) @ Tampa Bay
Quitely, Domingo Germán has been arguably the Yankees’ most valuable player through the first quarter or so of the season. He’s posting a 2.35 ERA through nearly 40 innings, and his 2.71 FIP suggests the performance has not been built upon luck. Already, his 1.4 fWAR is half a win more than he contributed over 2018, in which he made fourteen starts and seven relief appearances.
Pick: New York (AL) to win +150. Medium confidence.
Pittsburgh @ St. Louis
Adam Wainwright has struggled so far this year. His ERA’s a disappointing 4.71, with an unsettling 5.09 FIP accompanying it. At 37, the former ace might be approaching the end of the line, creating a possible awkward situation in St. Louis as his employer tries to contend for a playoff berth.
Pick: Pittsburgh to win +142. Low confidence.
Washington @ Los Angeles
The Nationals got Anthony Rendon back the other day. Important pieces (Trea Turner, Juan Soto, Ryan Zimmerman) remain sidelined, but it’s a start as Washington tries to climb back into the picture in the NL East.
There’s a lot of season left.
Pick: Washington to win +175. Low confidence.
