Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –0.7% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 6,913 published picks, not including pending futures; and an average return on investment, per pick, of +2.2% across 2,268 completed high and medium-confidence picks. The low confidence picks are the problem. Most of our picks are in the low confidence category.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. We use kenpom heavily to make college basketball picks. We use our own college basketball model to evaluate college basketball futures.
Active markets today: College basketball, in both single-day bets and futures form.
Single-day college basketball bets: On the season, we’re 119–82–1 and we’re down 1.07 units. We’ve mostly been betting moneyline favorites the last couple months, so our win–loss record doesn’t line up with our net loss.
College basketball futures: We started these on Friday, February 23rd. Our portfolio has 350 units, and it’s looking like we’ll invest roughly 120 of those before conference tournaments are over. We’re currently investing six units per day, but because we were late yesterday, we’re placing eleven today.
Indiana State vs. Missouri State
Missouri State played well enough yesterday, and this is early enough in the tournament, and Missouri State hung with Indiana State closely enough in the Springfield game, that we think the Bears put a little scare in the Sycamores today. We’re probably reaching, but it’s the first pick we saw that we liked.
Pick: Missouri State +12.5 (–115). Low confidence.
Drake vs. Evansville
On the other end, we think Drake knows how to approach these games. We think there’s value from having won a conference tournament before. And we don’t think too much of Evansville, though maybe we’re just bitter, as we really liked the length on our Illinois State future that they destroyed.
Pick: Drake –13.5 (–110). Low confidence.
Big South Tournament
We aren’t winning these super longshot conference tournament bets, nor are we capitalizing on any value they create. But, that’s kind of the deal with this sort of approach. You have to take a lot of shots, and you have to be ok with the prospect of losing all of them. We still have enough expected value in the bubble futures portion of our portfolio to keep taking cracks like these.
Charleston Southern? Lot of players in and out of the lineup this year. Head coach stepped down at the end of November. It’s possible these Bucs are a little more than they seem. But even if they’re exactly what they’ve been, there’s some value at this price.
Pick: Charleston Southern to win +15000. Low confidence.
Summit League Tournament
The Summit League play-in game is tonight, and St. Thomas is the best team in this tournament, according to kenpom. The Tommies do not have the best path—they got the 4-seed, which creates tougher matchups and removes a potential day of rest—but they’re a good basketball team, and rest gets overvalued just as much as path gets undervalued.
Pick: St. Thomas to win +290. Low confidence.
Missouri Valley Conference Tournament
Last (in this genre), we’re taking Bradley. The value isn’t great (the eROI’s only 5%, per our model), but Bradley’s a bigger favorite than kenpom has them, because UIC just played two overtimes (again, rest might be overvalued, but it’s probably not nothing). We’d like some shorter odds in this portfolio. Up the probability of hitting things.
Pick: Bradley to win +400. Low confidence.
NCAA Tournament
Finally, our Final Four futures for the day. We’re back in on Auburn, although our model’s higher on their eventual seed than Bracket Matrix, and to a degree where—especially given how the committee doesn’t consider the SEC Championship (or possibly the semifinals or quarterfinals in some situations)—it’s unreasonable. The eROI’s just too high (44%) for that to all be seeding. In the other one, we continue to like Duke’s value. We can believe in just about anyone to make the Final Four. Duke and Auburn are far better than just anyone.
Pick: Auburn to make Final Four +500. Low confidence. x2
Pick: Duke to make Final Four +500. Low confidence.
