Editor’s Note: Over a sample size of 884 completed bets (this doesn’t include outstanding futures picks), Joe’s picks published here and back at All Things NIT, our former site, have an average return on investment of 6% when weighted by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high). This, compared to other picks consistently published online, is pretty good. More broadly, it’s adequate when compared to conventional annual investments, and instead of taking a year to bring that return, it’s taking between three hours and seven months. In short, Joe’s got a good track record.
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One pick for today, plus another future.
As always:
- Lines come from the Vegas Consensus at the time this is written, or the best approximation I can find of it online.
- Data and predictions from KenPom, FanGraphs, Baseball Savant, and ESPN is/are often used and/or cited.
- The blurbs often aren’t justifications of the picks. Often, they’re instead just notes about something or someone related to the pick. Something that interests me. I don’t explain the picks because in general, the rationale behind each pick is the same, so it would be boring to say over and over again that the numbers I use project a good return on investment and I see no red flags significant enough to make me hold off.
Northern Iowa vs. Drake—Missouri Valley Conference Quarterfinals
On Saturday, Northern Iowa held Drake to 43 points. The Bulldogs shot 3-21 from deep, made only 40.6% of their two-point attempts, and managed to notch just five assists. It was a brutal, brutal performance, and the slow tempo of the game exacerbated the futility.
Don’t expect such a disaster today.
While Drake is nothing special offensively, they’re a decent shooting team. 76th in the nation in effective field goal percentage. And while UNI’s defense is nothing to scoff at, it’s their offense that really drives the show. Look for that offense to get going, and look for Drake to perform at least respectably, and while the tempo should still be slow, it’s reasonable to expect the pair to combine for at least a point per possession. That should be enough to cash this over.
Pick: Over 130 (-110). Low confidence.
Southern Conference Men’s Basketball Tournament Champion
Another day, another mid-major conference tournament longshot. Today, it’s the Catamounts of WCU, the fourth or fifth-best team in a three-team league.
Behind East Tennessee State, Furman, and UNC-Greensboro, the Southern Conference drops off quickly. A Fletcher Magee-less Wofford has struggled. Mercer and Chattanooga have had their moments, but neither is anything special. And Western Carolina, in the thick of that pack of four, is a strange team, playing a small lineup and running and gunning their way through the regular season.
The Catamounts have come close to a few big victories. They took Florida State to the wire in November. They nearly upended ETSU on Saturday. But for the most part, they’ve been confined to winning most of the games they should, losing a tough one here and there, and shooting threes all over the place.
At these odds, there’s value to be had in WCU. Having managed to grab the five-seed, they get to open as likely a small favorite against Mercer before dealing with the league’s titans, should they advance. Don’t put too much stock in them, but they’re worth taking a flier on, and at the very least they should be a lot of fun to watch.
Pick: Western Carolina (+2500). Low confidence.
