Editor’s Note: For more than two years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. There have been moments of elation (the Nationals winning the 2019 World Series, the first two months of last college basketball season). There have been moments of frustration (the Dodgers’ NLCS comeback, the second two months of last college basketball season). Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 0.7% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 1,273 published picks, not including pending futures. And while 0.7% might not be enormous, it’s positive over a big sample size. For what it’s worth.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas Consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. Ken Pomeroy’s KenPom is heavily used in making College Basketball picks.
Three wins yesterday…but each by one possession.
Atlantic Sun Tournament: Liberty vs. Stetson
Stetson and Bellarmine barely got across the line for us yesterday, which provokes some questioning on whether this is an issue with KenPom’s estimation of Stetson rather than a one-off market inefficiency. The total ended closer to the Vegas estimation than that of KenPom, if I remember correctly.
At the same time, though, it’s possible it’s an inefficiency, and without having personally looked into the trend of possession count and offensive efficiency as teams play on consecutive days, this looks rather appealing. So we’re giving it another shot.
Pick: Over 134 (-110). Low confidence.
Sun Belt Tournament: Appalachian State vs. Arkansas-Little Rock
With Markquis Nowell evidently leaving the program, UALR was in freefall for a while there. They did beat Louisiana-Lafayette in their last regular season game, but even if they hadn’t, it’s been a month now since they lost Nowell. Systems like KenPom, which we love, adjust, and while it does take a bit, if a team’s ranking’s stabilized, the system’s probably caught up.
UALR’s KenPom ranking has stabilized, hovering between 222 and 244 since February 22nd. We’ll take a chance on them.
Pick: Arkansas-Little Rock +2 (-110). Low confidence.
