Editor’s Note: For a little more than three years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 0% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 2,047 published picks, not including bets that remain pending, like futures. So…dead even. All of that, for dead even.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. KenPom is heavily used in making college basketball picks.
A few more conference tournament futures today, for which the odds come from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline due to the absence of a current/accurate Vegas consensus. First, though:
Illinois State vs. Northern Iowa
Illinois State had an awful day offensively yesterday, but it’s easy to make too much of that. They should rebound today. In the bounce-back sense. Might have some trouble on the actual boards.
Pick: Over 146 (-109). Medium confidence.
Charleston Southern vs. USC Upstate
A foul-happy team and a team that likes to shoot threes walk into the Bojangles Coliseum.
Pick: Over 143.5 (-110). Medium confidence.
High Point vs. Winthrop
Winthrop hasn’t lost since January. They also have only played one team in the top half of the Big South since January. High Point’s ability to defend the perimeter and Winthrop’s struggles at the free throw line should keep this close.
Pick: High Point +6.5 (-110). Medium confidence.
And now, the futures:
Missouri Valley Conference Men’s Basketball Tournament
It looks like the market didn’t really react to Valparaiso getting past Evansville. It was likely, but it wasn’t guaranteed. Add it to the portfolio.
Pick: Valparaiso to win +10000. Low confidence.
Southern Conference Men’s Basketball Tournament
The potential absence of Jake Stephens does hurt VMI, but these odds are too good to pass up on the Keydets. Meanwhile, Stephens’s absence helps Wofford, and Mercer hasn’t lost by double digits in more than a month, playing Chattanooga tight twice over that stretch.
Pick: Wofford to win +600. Medium confidence.
Pick: VMI to win +2000. Low confidence.
Pick: Mercer to win +4000. Low confidence.
