Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -1% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 4,704 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +3% across 1,607 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. KenPom is used in making college basketball picks. FiveThirtyEight’s SPI is heavily used in making soccer futures picks. ESPN’s FPI is heavily used in making NFL futures picks.
College basketball futures context! We started with 100 units in our portfolio, with the intent being to hold onto half of that in case we want to hedge. We’re down 2 units so far, with 2 others pending before today’s plays were placed.
Ohio Valley Conference Tournament
We remain unconvinced of Morehead State. SEMO would have to win their third game in three days just to get through tonight, but Morehead hasn’t played in a week and SEMO runs a deep bench. It’s not likely, but it’s value.
Pick: Southeast Missouri State to win +450. Low confidence.
Toledo @ Ball State
Toledo is, per KenPom, the 10th-best offensive team in the country. We believe in that, especially against a defense that’s bad against the 3.
Pick: Parlay – Toledo -4, Over 159 (+271). Low confidence.
Akron @ Kent State
Kent State’s the better team, and we like the better team to win. Akron’s definitely showed life, but this has been Kent State’s league, and we expect them to keep it that way entering the MAC Tournament.
Pick: Kent State -4 (-108). Low confidence.
