Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -1% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 4,804 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +3% across 1,617 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. KenPom is used in making college basketball picks. FiveThirtyEight’s SPI is heavily used in making soccer futures picks. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
MLB, Day 2.
We’ve had a lot of success on our MLB futures over these last four seasons. We’ve profited on them in three of four years, and in two of those our return on investment was greater than 50%. We don’t expect to do *that* well, but we expect to pick up some units come September and October.
The way we approach this is to place two futures per weekday, nearly every day of the season. We’re giving ourselves a few days off this year, to be used sporadically, but generally, that’s going to be the approach. Every day, Monday through Friday, we will place two futures. Each will be a medium confidence bet, so each will be two units. We started yesterday with 750 units in our MLB futures bankroll, and we intend to hold onto 250 of them for the purpose of arbitrage plays or late-season hedging if that’s something which makes sense for us.
We will also have a daily MLB pick, even through the weekend, unless it goes quite badly, in which case we will stop. For now? Daily MLB pick, even through the weekend. Here’s what we’ve got today:
AL West
I do think it’s possible to make too little of Opening Day results, and I have concerns about Jacob deGrom. But the Mariners’ roster is not as good as their outcomes last year, and the Astros are trying to shortcut a rebuild while also managing the championship hangover. It’s Houston’s division to lose, but don’t be surprised if one of these two makes it interesting. There’s value here.
Pick: Anaheim to win +750. Medium confidence.
Pick: Texas to win +850. Medium confidence.
Cleveland @ Seattle
It’s always scary when Cleveland trots out a new starting pitcher, and it’s scary when he appears valued more highly by the Guardians than by the numbers (since it isn’t unusual for the Guardians to beat the numbers). Still, we like Seattle tonight to make it two in a row. They’re our favorite price on the board.
Pick: Seattle to win -156. Low confidence. (Gaddis and Ray must start.)
