Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –1.0% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 7,049 published picks, not including pending futures; and an average return on investment, per pick, of +2.2% across 2,268 completed high and medium-confidence picks. The low confidence picks are the problem. Most of our picks are in the low confidence category.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. We use kenpom heavily to make college basketball picks. We use our own college basketball model to evaluate college basketball futures. We rely heavily on FanGraphs for all our MLB action.
Active markets today: College basketball and Major League Baseball, each in both the single-game and futures forms.
Single-day college basketball bets: On the season, we’re 141–113–2 and we’re down 11.74 units. We went through a stretch of mostly betting moneyline favorites, so our win–loss record doesn’t line up with our net loss. We’re on a very cold streak.
College basketball futures: We started these on Friday, February 23rd with 350 units in our portfolio. We had a bad Champ Week, but we started cashing in value last night and will hopefully see more come across tonight.
Single-day MLB bets: Last year, we finished the season up about 8%, betting strictly moneylines. We’re trying the same approach this year. We’re 1–0 so far, up 0.48 units.
MLB futures: We have a great history with these, though the last two years we’ve only made small profits. In both 2019 and 2021, I believe we recorded better than a 50% ROI. In 2020, we lost about 25% of our portfolio. We began this season with 750 units in our portfolio, with the intent being to spend 500 of those over the regular season and keep 250 in reserve for the postseason and/or hedging & arbitrage opportunities. We plan to place two medium-confidence bets most weekdays.
Marquette vs. NC State
I don’t know the extent to which Clemson was actually undervalued by ratings systems and betting markets, but they were definitely undervalued by the narrative. I think part of this is that they slotted in only a little bit after that big gap which split the 16th-best team from the 17th-best in the country. Clemson was a good team this year.
NC State? Not so much. And Tyler Kolek should only be healthier this weekend.
Pick: Marquette –7 (–110). Low confidence.
Purdue vs. Gonzaga
Purdue beat Gonzaga by ten in November. Purdue should have some sort of crowd advantage in this game. Kenpom has the line at five. Until we see this Gonzaga team beat someone really good, we’re going to take the really good team to beat them. In this case, with a little room to spare.
Pick: Purdue –5 (–110). Low confidence.
Houston vs. Duke
We said this early last week, filling out our bracket: We feel like we saw this movie last year, when Duke ran into Tennessee. We think Houston beats Duke up, and that Houston’s offense doesn’t have too bad a time against an underappreciated but not great Duke defensive front.
Pick: Houston –4 (–115). Low confidence.
Tennessee vs. Creighton
This is the hardest one to read all day, but it feels like enough of a tossup that we think we might be getting three and a half more points than we should.
Pick: Creighton +3.5 (–110). Low confidence.
NCAA Tournament
Ten units today, split across four plays. Our model’s showing value on all of these, and they all help our portfolio’s balance. We’re still better served by Duke beating Houston than Houston beating Duke, but this helps leverage some of that value.
Pick: Creighton to make Final Four +500. Low confidence.
Pick: Houston to win tournament +650. Low confidence. x5
Pick: Alabama to win tournament +1800. Low confidence. x3
Pick: Clemson to win tournament +4000. Low confidence.
Boston @ Seattle
No red flags here. The Mariners only used the poorer parts of their bullpen last night.
Pick: Seattle to win –135. Low confidence. (Pivetta and Kirby must start.)
World Series
The Braves should probably be the World Series favorites, especially with Shohei Ohtani’s status at least a little up in the air. I’m curious if books took a lot of Dodgers bets this offseason and are trying to scare bettors off of growing that liability.
Pick: Atlanta to win +500. Medium confidence.
ALCS
In the AL, never doubt the Rays. There’s a lot of value here, and that’s before accounting for the somewhat common overperformance from Tampa Bay’s bench guys.
Pick: Tampa Bay to win +1400. Medium confidence.
