Editor’s Note: Joe Stunardi is our resident bracketologist, as well as our all-around numbers guy. He’d say that you shouldn’t read too much into it, since the sample size is only 135 completed bets (there are outstanding futures picks), but his picks published here and back at All Things NIT have had an average return on investment of 3% when weighted by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high), meaning he’s about as successful as a bettor who wins 54% of their straight bets.
As always, use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose following Joe’s picks. At the same time, though, you’re also responsible for any money you win.
Similarly, if you have a gambling problem, or even think you might have a gambling problem, get help. If you need help getting help, reach out to us at allthingsnit@gmail.com.
I’ve got seven picks today that I like—four from college basketball, where these picks are more established, and three in the MLB, where we’re still trying out the ropes. Each has a positive expected return on investment based on the data I use to make these picks, which includes (but isn’t limited to) what’s available at KenPom, Fangraphs, and ESPN (through BPI, mainly). As always, all lines come from the Vegas consensus at the time I write this, and as always, I can’t recommend a KenPom subscription strongly enough (because the Fangraphs subscription doesn’t change your content and only changes whether you see advertisements, I don’t have as strong of a recommendation for that one).
NCAAT Sweet Sixteen: Michigan State vs. LSU
Michigan State wears some uncertainty thanks to injuries. Most significantly at this point, it’s still hard to say how different they are without Kyle Ahrens, though concerns about how close Cassius Winston is to 100% aren’t unreasonable.
Still, all that does is move this down to low confidence. It’s still more likely than not that the Spartans will cover. They’re more than six points better than LSU.
That isn’t to say LSU doesn’t have a chance, of course. Michigan State isn’t bad at defensive rebounding, but they aren’t great at it, and second chances are one of LSU’s primary offensive vehicles. The Spartans are also, contrarily to what you might expect, turnover-prone, which plays into LSU’s hands.
Of course, beyond those factors, Michigan State has more advantages. They’re an excellent defensive team, and should force LSU into a lot of bad shots. They score efficiently, which is dangerous for an LSU team that, for all the turnovers it forces, gives up good looks and allows a lot of offensive boards.
Pick: Michigan State -6 (-110). Low confidence.
NCAAT Sweet Sixteen: North Carolina vs. Auburn
The total for this is climbing, which makes sense when looking at how many possessions North Carolina generates and how big Auburn’s reputation for playing fast has grown.
The thing is, Auburn doesn’t actually play all that fast. Yes, their offense is one of the quicker ones in the country, built around finding open three’s and taking them before they aren’t open anymore, but their defense is remarkable in how significantly it slows down opponents.
This defense could become a problem for UNC. While they rebound as strongly as anyone (and should feast on Auburn’s poor tendencies on that front, defensively), they’re good-not-great when it comes to protecting the ball and scoring efficiently. Yes, Auburn’s defense gives up good looks, but will UNC capitalize? And can they protect the ball well enough to find those good looks against the best turnover-forcing team in the country?
If picking this straight-up, I’d take UNC to win. But the line, like the total, is higher than the numbers recommend.
Pick: Under 165
(-110). Low confidence.
Pick: Auburn +5.5 (-110). Low confidence.
NCAAT Sweet Sixteen: Duke vs. Virginia Tech
The same factors that led me to, on Tuesday, take Virginia Tech at +700 to make the Final Four are at work tonight. As I wrote at the time:
For what it’s worth, Virginia Tech beat Duke in their only matchup this season. It isn’t worth much, though, seeing as it came in Blacksburg, it came in regular season play, Zion Williamson was out with injury, and Justin Robinson was out with injury. Virginia Tech does excel at forcing teams to shoot three’s, and those often aren’t good looks, which bodes poorly for a team whose only 34%+ three-point shooter is Alex O’Connell. On the other side, though, Duke’s own perimeter defense should prove to be too much for the Hokies unless Kerry Blackshear is causing so much damage inside that Duke has to collapse.
Since then, the strange Ty Outlaw news broke (if you haven’t heard, police searched his home while he was in San Jose for the tournament’s first weekend, found marijuana, and charged him with possession—he passed a drug test administered Wednesday and is set to play tonight), but little has changed. Virginia Tech is going to try to force Duke to make three’s. Duke is going to try to make Virginia Tech miss three’s. Blackshear is going to try to get Duke’s bigs into foul trouble. Duke’s going to try to do the same to Blackshear. Buzz Williams is going to serve as a striking foil for Mike Krzyzewski.
Again, Duke is obviously the favorite here, and is more likely than not to win. But public consensus is understating how likely Virginia Tech is to win this game, a likelihood that sits somewhere between 65% and 75%.
Don’t be surprised if this comes down to the wire.
Pick: Virginia Tech +7 (-110). Low confidence.
MLB: Houston @ Tampa Bay
Two of the best major league franchises at turning dollars into wins were paired up this year for Opening Day. And while the Rays gave Justin Verlander trouble out of the gate, the Astros took the series’ first game yesterday.
Today, former Astro Charlie Morton takes the mound for the Rays, opposite Gerrit Cole. Cole was one of the best pitchers in baseball last season, finishing 15th among all players in fWAR. Charlie Morton wasn’t quite that effective, but he contributed 167 innings of a 3.13 ERA, and while he’s due for some regression, he’s still expected to be near the 3.50 ERA range.
Lineups aren’t posted yet for this one, but as it stands, the Rays are a little undervalued on the moneyline. Both bullpens should be fully armed aside from the Rays having used Jalen Beeks at full capacity yesterday. Might be a fun game if you have the means to watch it.
Pick: Tampa Bay to win +125. Low confidence.
MLB: Anaheim @ Oakland
I have no real ties to Southern California, but as I typed Los Angeles (AL) I felt I was doing something wrong. So if The Barking Crow ever makes a style guide, expect it to include a note on addressing the Angels as the Anaheim Angels rather than that geographically inaccurate name they prefer.
If you’re wondering where these teams stand entering the season, they’re each lumped in with the Twins and Rays in a projected race for the American League’s fifth playoff spot (the presumption, which is an unusually safe bet as far as presumptions regarding four teams go, is that the Yankees, Red Sox, Indians, and Astros will take four spots themselves). The Angels, of course, have possibly the best player in baseball history. The Athletics, meanwhile, have a crafty front office, a positively electric corner infield situation (led by Matt Chapman, who you should get to know), a mashing designated hitter named Khris Davis who’s hit 40+ home runs each of the last three years, and one of the best bullpens in the game.
The A’s are fun.
But fun doesn’t have much to do with who will win this game.
I don’t profess to know who will win, but I can say that the A’s should probably be slight favorites in this one, and they’re not, so they’re an efficient pick. Keep an eye out for lineups, though.
Pick: Oakland to win +105. Low confidence.
MLB: Arizona @ Los Angeles
A day after the Dodgers hit eight home runs, they host the Diamondbacks for round two. Robbie Ray’s on the mound for Arizona, squaring off against Ross Stripling, both of whom probably won’t be as good this year as optimists would hope, but are certainly solid pitchers.
The Diamondbacks didn’t use a lot of bullpen yesterday, sending Matt Koch out there from the fourth inning onward to absorb damage. For the Dodgers’ relief staff, presumably only Brock Stewart is unavailable.
If you’re thinking the Diamondbacks might be a playoff team this year, performing similarly to 2017, when they made a mildly unexpected NLDS run, or last year, when they hung around the wild card race for much of the season, don’t get your hopes too high. While the D-Backs have no glaring holes (aside from possibly that bullpen, which is rather thin after the nothing-to-write-home-about top line), they have no obvious strengths either, projecting as a thoroughly mediocre team with the unfortunate task of playing the Dodgers 19 times a year and dealing with the Padres, who at any moment might trade half their farm system for a couple future hall-of-famers.
Still, they aren’t a bad bet today, as the line is probably giving their rivals too much credit. As with the other two, though, a lineup surprise could change that.
Pick: Arizona to win +155. Low confidence.
