Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -1% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 4,787 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +3% across 1,617 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. KenPom is used in making college basketball picks. FiveThirtyEight’s SPI is heavily used in making soccer futures picks. ESPN’s FPI is heavily used in making NFL futures picks.
No new futures today, as we let our Creighton pick ride. On the games in the Midwest Region:
Houston vs. Miami
The thing about this line and Houston is that Houston could be down fifteen early in the second half and still have a chance to cover. They’re just so fierce, and Miami’s done it before but they’re going to have to play an unbelievable game to stay in this, and that’s never the likeliest outcome.
Pick: Houston -7.5 (-110). Low confidence.
Texas vs. Xavier
I wish this line was two points wider, but I do think the market’s sleeping on Xavier. They’ve done a lot.
Pick: Xavier +4 (-107). Low confidence.
