Editor’s Note: Joe Stunardi is our resident bracketologist, as well as our all-around numbers guy. He’d say that you shouldn’t read too much into it, since the sample size is only 111 bets, but his picks published here and back at All Things NIT have had an average return on investment of 6% when weighted by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high), meaning he’s about as successful as a bettor who wins 56% of their straight bets.
As always, use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose following Joe’s picks. At the same time, though, you’re also responsible for any money you win.
Similarly, if you have a gambling problem, or even think you might have a gambling problem, get help. If you need help getting help, reach out to us at allthingsnit@gmail.com.
We stopped the bleeding yesterday, turning in a positive ROI for the first time since Sunday. We’ll try to keep that going today.
As always, lines come from the Vegas consensus at the time I write this.
Cincinnati vs. Iowa – NCAA Tournament First Round
The narrative surrounding Iowa is that following Fran McCaffery’s blowup in Columbus, the Hawkeyes staggered down the stretch.
That narrative might be flawed.
Of the Hawkeyes’ five games after that, they were underdogs in our model in three. They lost those three and beat Illinois in a game in which they were favored. The fifth game was the home loss to Rutgers, which, yes, was ugly, but actually came during McCaffery’s suspension, and was just one data point.
Iowa’s been a solid team beyond that, and while they landed closer to the bubble than they would have liked, they’ve got a great offense built on moving the basketball well and getting to the foul line. They’re still young, but most of their lineup has been playing together for a few years now, and their fanbase’s willingness to travel to Columbus shouldn’t be undervalued. It’s not home court advantage by any means, but it’s enough to negate any stock you might put in Cincinnati’s geographic advantage.
Cincinnati’s defense, as it does to many teams, should give the Hawkeyes fits, and the Bearcat offense should have their way on the glass.
It’ll be a tempo battle, but the data says Iowa’s more likely than not to cover. It also says to expect more points than the total’s indicating.
Pick: Iowa +4.5 (-110). Low confidence.
Pick: Over 137.5 (-110). Low confidence.
Mississippi vs. Oklahoma – NCAA Tournament First Round
The second game of the day is another tight matchup.
Little stands out about either team on paper. They’re both solid teams without too many distinguishing characteristics. Neither has any particularly devastating losses. Neither has any eye-popping wins, unless you consider Mississippi’s road win over Auburn eye-popping.
So, with things as close as this, it makes sense to pick the team KenPom and BPI both like to win, however narrowly they expect it to happen. I’ll take the spread to get that one-point cushion, since the moneyline’s only at -105.
Pick: Oklahoma +1 (-110). Low confidence.
Texas Tech vs. Northern Kentucky – NCAA Tournament First Round
Northern Kentucky moves the ball well and gets good looks. Texas Tech denies good looks vigorously. On the other end, Northern Kentucky’s perimeter defense might frustrate the Red Raiders, but Chris Beard’s team, as usual, isn’t particularly reliant upon the three.
Pick: Texas Tech -12.5 (-110). Low confidence.
Wisconsin vs. Oregon – NCAA Tournament First Round
Yes, Oregon is a strong defensive team, and yes, they’ve played relatively well as of late, but who have they been beating?
Ethan Happ might not be the best player in the country, but he’s close to it, and Oregon’s defensive strength revolves around forcing turnovers, slowing the game down, and forcing bad shots—often from outside the arc. Wisconsin loves to play slowly, protects the ball as well as anyone, and shoots well enough on three’s on the occasions when it takes them.
Fade the public.
Pick: Wisconsin -2 (-110). Medium confidence.
Utah State vs. Washington – NCAA Tournament First Round
Washington may have been over-seeded (presumably it was locked in prior to their showing in the Pac-12 Championship?), but here they are, and they present some matchup problems for a Utah State team that should be a force next season, and wasn’t half-bad this year.
Specifically, keep an eye on Utah State’s turnover total. Washington steals the ball more than anyone in the country not named Auburn. Utah State isn’t bad at controlling the ball, but they aren’t good at it either.
Washington should really struggle to score, which may be the death of them, but this line is probably a little too sympathetic to the Aggies.
Pick: Washington +3.5 (-110). Low confidence.
VCU vs. UCF – NCAA Tournament First Round
As with Mississippi and Oklahoma, this is a strikingly even matchup. Unlike that game, though, there are plenty of notable things about these teams.
The presence of Tacko Fall makes UCF’s defense unique. He clogs up offenses, slowing things down and forcing difficult shots. This will be a problem for VCU, whose offense already struggles to get good shots, but if the Rams can get the ball out in transition, they’ll turn the tables on the big man, who can’t play a lot of minutes even when he isn’t being forced to get up and down the floor quickly.
VCU’s defense isn’t unique, but it’s very good at what it does. Mike Rhoades’ team is among the best at forcing bad shots, forcing teams to use the entire shot clock, and forcing turnovers. They do tend to foul a lot, though, and UCF gets to the free-throw line more than anyone but USF. But, a lot of UCF’s free throws are taken by Fall, a 36% shooter from the stripe.
UCF’s a good team with some great players, but VCU should be the narrowest of favorites, rather than a narrow underdog.
Pick: VCU to win +100. Low confidence.
Virginia Tech vs. Saint Louis – NCAA Tournament First Round
The final game of the first round won’t be close if Virginia Tech’s defense does its thing. Saint Louis is solid defensively, and Travis Ford has done impressive work getting them to the tournament, but the Billikens just haven’t shown any indication they can score against a defense as tenacious as that of the Hokies.
It’ll be interesting to see how Justin Robinson’s reintroduction into the lineup affects Virginia Tech.
Pick: Virginia Tech -10.5 (-110). Low confidence.
