Editor’s Note: For a little more than three years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -3% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 2,247 published picks, not including bets that remain pending, like futures. That is, of course, unprofitable, and while our projections do indicate we’ll get back to even or profitable by early April, with college basketball futures ongoing, we want to be transparent with you here.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. KenPom is heavily used in making college basketball picks.
More futures today, for which the odds come from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline due to the absence of a current/accurate Vegas consensus with the futures. First, though:
Purdue vs. Yale
Yale’s going to have all kinds of trouble against Purdue, and Purdue shouldn’t be in too much danger here. But when you’re as weak defensively as Purdue is, little is safe, especially when your tendency is to let teams shoot a lot of threes. Yale, meanwhile, has some effective aspects on defense, so if Purdue doesn’t do the smart thing and get Zach Edey 25 field goal attempts, things could go badly on that end for the Boilers as well.
Pick: Yale +16.5 (-110). Medium confidence.
USC vs. Miami
Two offense-first teams with a lot of mismatches in a game where there could be a good bit of fouling at the end.
Pick: Over 139.5 (-110). Medium confidence.
Duke vs. Cal State-Fullerton
As with Purdue/Yale, there isn’t much reason to believe in Fullerton here to pull off the upset. But the Titans are experienced, they often win the free throw battle, and they limit three-point attempts, all things that can help keep Duke from running away.
Pick: Cal State-Fullerton +18.5 (-110). Medium confidence.
NCAA Tournament
Kind of a lot of these today, and a lot of units on Tennessee, UCLA, and to a lesser extent UNC while the opportunity’s here. Extended the eROI boundary downward for cases where the thing’s ten percent likely or better to happen (eROI boundary was 25%, moved it to something like 5%). Haven’t done all the math on where this leaves us with profit probability, but it’s above 50%, and teams we’re in on who play today are now:
- Ohio State
- Loyola
- Jacksonville State
- Montana State
- Yale
- Delaware
- Alabama
- Notre Dame
- Texas
- Virginia Tech
- Chattanooga
- Cal State-Fullerton
- LSU
- Iowa State
- Houston
- UAB
- Michigan State
- Davidson
- Colgate
- Seton Hall
- TCU
So…nearly everyone beyond the 4-seed line. Numbers game.
Pick: Tennessee to make Final Four +450. Medium confidence.
Pick: Tennessee to make Final Four +450. Medium confidence.
Pick: Tennessee to make Final Four +450. Medium confidence.
Pick: Tennessee to make Final Four +450. Medium confidence.
Pick: Tennessee to make Final Four +450. Medium confidence.
Pick: Tennessee to make Final Four +450. Medium confidence.
Pick: Tennessee to make Final Four +450. Medium confidence.
Pick: UCLA to make Final Four +550. Medium confidence.
Pick: UCLA to make Final Four +550. Medium confidence.
Pick: UCLA to make Final Four +550. Medium confidence.
Pick: UCLA to make Final Four +550. Medium confidence.
Pick: UCLA to make Final Four +550. Medium confidence.
Pick: UCLA to make Final Four +550. Medium confidence.
Pick: UCLA to make Final Four +550. Medium confidence.
Pick: UNC to make Final Four +1800. Medium confidence.
Pick: UNC to make Final Four +1800. Medium confidence.
Pick: Creighton to make Final Four +3500. Medium confidence.
Pick: UAB to make Final Four +10000. Low confidence.
Pick: New Mexico State to make Final Four +25000. Low confidence.
Pick: Montana State to make Sweet Sixteen +6000. Low confidence.
Pick: Yale to make Sweet Sixteen +9000. Low confidence.
Pick: Delaware to make Sweet Sixteen +10000. Low confidence.
Pick: Cal State-Fullerton to make Sweet Sixteen +10000. Low confidence.
Pick: Jacksonville State to make Sweet Sixteen +10000. Low confidence.
NIT
Adding a couple more here as well, getting our probability of having at least one team we’re in on reach the championship game up to 65%.
Pick: Oklahoma to win +625. Medium confidence.
Pick: Oklahoma to win +625. Medium confidence.
Pick: Florida to win +1800. Medium confidence.
