Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -1% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 4,766 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +3% across 1,617 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. KenPom is used in making college basketball picks. FiveThirtyEight’s SPI is heavily used in making soccer futures picks. ESPN’s FPI is heavily used in making NFL futures picks.
On the futures front, for context: We’re down 2.1 units so far on the college basketball futures effort, with our only current pending play on Oregon at 11-to-1 to win the NIT. We aren’t doing a comprehensive futures portfolio after all—it’s just one-off’s like today’s—so apologies to those who, like us, enjoy it when we do that. We’ll be back to the portfolio approach with Major League Baseball when it arrives, so look out for that. Besides elections, it’s our most successful market.
Saint Mary’s vs. VCU
Saint Mary’s doesn’t get enough credit. They found their groove late, and have been deservedly punished for that in seeding, but they won the WCC for a reason, that reason being that this is a damn good team. Gonzaga worked them in Las Vegas the last time we saw them in action, but that was one game. The Atlantic 10 as a whole was a mess all year, and VCU isn’t much different. Even in Albany, we’ll take these Gaels.
Pick: Saint Mary’s -4 (-110). Low confidence.
Marquette vs. Vermont
This is not as good a Vermont team as we’ve often seen from these guys lately, and with Marquette’s desire to push the pace, we see that ending badly today. We don’t trust Marquette to go far in the tournament, but we don’t like Vermont as any sort of upset pick.
Pick: Marquette -10 (-110). Low confidence.
Kansas State vs. Montana State
Similarly, there’s not much to like about Montana State, and when Kansas State gets rolling, they’re good enough to put a game like this out of reach. That’s what we expect them to do.
Pick: Kansas State -7.5 (-107). Low confidence.
TCU vs. Arizona State
Paying two extra points beyond the KenPom line to take a team with a ton of off-court drama going on? Give us the opponent here, even if that means taking Bobby Hurley against Jamie Dixon.
Pick: Arizona State +5 (-110). Low confidence.
NCAA Tournament
I like Creighton a lot. They play solid defense, their offense has underachieved but is more than capable, and while they don’t have the best draw in the world, their toughest path to the Elite Eight from here goes NC State, Baylor, Mizzou, which is tough but not when you speak relatively (I wish we’d placed this yesterday). I’m also not sure markets are making enough of Brandon Miller’s groin injury and the fact he didn’t score a single point in the first round. Brandon Miller is often the only thing holding Alabama together in moments of distress. Put otherwise: Without Brandon Miller, Alabama is Auburn. With half a Brandon Miller, Alabama is somewhere in between.
In the wide-open field, there are reasons to doubt every team, and those reasons exist for Creighton as well. But we’re going to ride with the Jays for a little bit and see what that does for us.
Pick: Creighton to win +2500. Low confidence.
