Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –0.8% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 6,966 published picks, not including pending futures; and an average return on investment, per pick, of +2.2% across 2,268 completed high and medium-confidence picks. The low confidence picks are the problem. Most of our picks are in the low confidence category.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. We use kenpom heavily to make college basketball picks. We use our own college basketball model to evaluate college basketball futures.
Active markets today: College basketball, in both single-day bets and futures form.
Single-day college basketball bets: On the season, we’re 125–91–1 and we’re down 4.65 units. We went through a stretch of mostly betting moneyline favorites, so our win–loss record doesn’t line up with our net loss.
College basketball futures: We started these on Friday, February 23rd. Our portfolio has 350 units, and we’re still on track to invest roughly 120 of those before conference tournaments are over. We’re currently investing six or seven per day.
Iowa State vs. Baylor
I’m not sure what the market’s seeing here, but it’s evidently high on the under. Baylor is great at making shots, and this is the sort of game—neutral-site, outside of Ames but in front of a supportive crowd—where Iowa State might be more eager than usual to run.
Pick: Over 134.5 (–110). Low confidence.
New Mexico vs. Colorado State
I don’t think there’s a meaningful quality difference between these two teams, and home court advantage is more than a crowd (this one should be friendly to the Lobos). Mostly, though, I’m worried that because New Mexico was so explicitly viewing last night as a play-in game, they won’t realize tonight is the real play-in for their tournament chances. We expect a little letdown.
Pick: Colorado State +3 (–110). Low confidence.
WAC Tournament
We’re back on the WAC, challenging the assumption that Grand Canyon will roll through its two games. We don’t have any reason to believe kenpom’s underestimating the Antelopes.
Pick: UT Arlington to win +550. Low confidence.
Pick: Seattle to win +600. Low confidence.
Big East Tournament
We’ve been hesitant about Marquette because of Tyler Kolek’s injury, but the value on them here is good, and the value on Providence is also positive even with that added opportunity. We’ll add both to our St. John’s future, in what has become an effective fade of UConn.
Pick: Marquette to win +350. Low confidence.
Pick: Providence to win +2000. Low confidence.
Big 12 Tournament
The value’s just a little too good on this. Texas Tech isn’t all that consistent, but when they’re good, they’re great, and they only need to win two more times.
Pick: Texas Tech to win +1400. Low confidence.
MAAC Tournament
Last, a second on Marist. We’re seeing a wide range of odds on this one, making us think this number is a mistake.
Pick: Marist to win +500. Low confidence.
