Editor’s Note: Joe Stunardi is our resident bracketologist, as well as our all-around numbers guy. He’d say that you shouldn’t read too much into it, since the sample size is only 59 bets, but his picks published here and back at All Things NIT have had an average return on investment of 24% when weighted by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high), meaning he’s about as successful as a bettor who wins 65% of their straight bets.
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I’ve got six picks for you today. Only one is even a medium-confidence play, but I like the collection on the aggregate. As always, lines are taken from the Vegas consensus I’m seeing online. Let’s dive in.
St. Bonaventure vs. George Mason – Atlantic 10 Quarterfinal
The Bonnies and the Patriots have each whooped each other once this season. Today’s rubbermatch figures to be closer, with the winner advancing to face either tournament favorite VCU or underdog Rhode Island in the A-10 semi’s.
St. Bonaventure is young this year, having graduated Jaylen Adams and Matt Mobley from last year’s NCAA Tournament team. Still, the Bonnies have been competitive, and while they’re outside the NIT picture, they’re still one of the best in the A-10. They run a slow, methodical offense, and loathe shooting three’s, which is good, because they’re a poor-shooting team. What success they’ve had has come on the defensive end, where they limit good looks and occasionally force a few turnovers.
George Mason is young as well, but is featuring much of the same lineup from last year’s fresh-faced squad. With Otis Livingston on his way out, the Patriots aren’t necessarily primed for a breakout next year, but the program’s performance this year has been encouraging. Little stands out about George Mason except that they, like St. Bonaventure, do not like to shoot from beyond the arc.
On paper, this game is close to a tossup, and while George Mason is less than 24 hours removed from a late escape of George Washington, they’ve got a good enough shot of winning, or at least making this very, very close.
Pick: George Mason +4.5 (-110). Low confidence.
Wisconsin vs. Nebraska – Big Ten Quarterfinal
If you’re confused about why Nebraska isn’t being discussed as a bubble team, you aren’t alone: Our model has them more likely to make the NCAAT than to miss it.
There are good reasons Nebraska isn’t getting attention, though. Isaac Copeland tore his ACL in January. Thomas Allen is day-to-day with an ankle injury. Nana Akenten is suspended indefinitely. Amir Harris is out for at least the remainder of the Big Ten Tournament.
Together, these are enough to knock Nebraska’s résumé down at least a few pegs. Whether that’s fair or not is beside the point.
Still, Nebraska has showed up in Chicago ready to play. After ending the regular season with an overtime win over Iowa on Senior Day, the Cornhuskers pulled away late against Rutgers on Wednesday before stomping Maryland yesterday.
Today, they run into a Wisconsin team that features arguably the best player in the country in Ethan Happ, with a supporting cast good enough to compete in the Big Ten in their own right.
The Badgers and Cornhuskers are similar in style, so a lot of this game will come down to how Nebraska can handle Happ. This is where Copeland is sorely missed.
Wisconsin will have its hands full with James Palmer and Glynn Watson, who have combined to score well over half Nebraska’s points this tournament. Brad Davison and D’Mitrik Trice are capable neutralizing Watson, but Palmer is a tough matchup.
I’m not confident about the Huskers, but the numbers say they have a chance to keep the run alive. I’ll take a chance on them being underestimated by the public.
Pick: Nebraska +8.5 (-110). Low confidence.
Auburn vs. South Carolina – SEC Quarterfinal
In the final of our afternoon picks, an Auburn team that may be out of its perceived slump looks for revenge against the team who dealt it one of the losses that led to that slump perception.
Both teams are more than willing to run the floor and get shots up quickly. Auburn is capable of turning those shots into points, especially from the three-point line, where South Carolina isn’t great at defending.
The line is priced pretty well on this one, but the total is enticing.
Pick: Over 146.5 (-110). Low confidence.
Davidson vs. St. Joseph’s – Atlantic 10 Quarterfinal
Davidson graduated Peyton Aldridge and Will Magarity after last year’s A-10 Tournament run to bid thievery, but with Jon Axel Gudmundsson back, they’re trying to achieve the same result this week. As with last year, they force opponents to slow down, and they put up a lot of three’s. Unlike last year, they aren’t making quite as many.
St. Joe’s put together a nice performance yesterday. They, too, try to live by the three, but all too often, they die from it.
On the whole, Davidson is just a better team than the line is giving them credit for being.
Pick: Davidson -6 (-110). Medium confidence.
Kansas vs. West Virginia – Big 12 Semifinal
West Virginia can’t do this forever, right?
Right?
*sweats nervously*
In all seriousness, what West Virginia has done these past two nights could very well repeat itself tonight. Who knows with Bob Huggins’ team.
Still, Kansas is rightfully the current Big 12 favorite, and despite their troubles this year, the Jayhawks should be able to make this game a lot more like the Lawrence version of the regular season home-and-home than the Morgantown edition.
Kansas is comfortable playing at West Virginia’s pace, and for all their youth, Bill Self’s team doesn’t need to be as worried about turnovers as they would have been against the last four West Virginia teams. This year’s Mountaineers just don’t do what those teams did defensively.
I don’t love Kansas to run away with this, but I like Kansas to run away with this.
Pick: Kansas -10 (-110). Low confidence.
Eastern Washington vs. Southern Utah – Big Sky Conference Semifinal
Out of absolutely nowhere, Southern Utah does things like beat their league’s second-best team by 19 points on a neutral court. Earlier this year, they sprung a similar performance on Eastern Washington at home.
While Eastern Washington finished four slots above Southern Utah in the league’s standings, and holds the honor of having a victory over Montana, these teams aren’t too far from equals on the court.
If you’re looking for a nightcap, don’t count out Southern Utah covering, provided this line stays as high as it currently sits.
Pick: Southern Utah +4 (-110). Low confidence.
