Editor’s Note: For more than two years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. There have been moments of elation (the Nationals winning the 2019 World Series, the first two months of last college basketball season). There have been moments of frustration (the Dodgers’ NLCS comeback, the second two months of last college basketball season). Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 0.8% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 1,284 published picks, not including pending futures. And while 0.8% might not be enormous, it’s positive over a big sample size. For what it’s worth.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. Ken Pomeroy’s KenPom is heavily used in making College Basketball picks.
Pac-12 Tournament: Oregon vs. Oregon State
After pulling off the thriller last night, winning by means of stunning comeback over UCLA, do the Beavers have enough left in the tank?
I hesitate to put too much weight on such things as fatigue, momentum, etc. They exist, but I’ve yet to see a great analysis of their effects in college basketball. So, knowing that conventional wisdom sometimes fills the void data leaves, this, to me, appears worth a shot. By strict numbers, Oregon is overvalued here.
Pick: Oregon State +8 (-110). Low confidence.
Big Ten Tournament: Iowa vs. Wisconsin
Wisconsin’s defensive play is, as usual, solid. Iowa’s is better than it used to be. But each should have familiar problems with the other—Iowa, with Wisconsin’s three-point shooting; Wisconsin, with Luka Garza.
KenPom does have this as a 67-possession game, when Sunday’s affair between the two was just 65 possessions. Is that the difference between his projection and the line? Could be. But against a sample size of two, it’s probably worthwhile to roll with the formula tonight.
Pick: Over 143 (-110). Low confidence.
Big West Tournament: UC-Irvine vs. UC-Riverside
A big ol’ tossup, long after dark. UC-Irvine scores at the rim. UC-Riverside defends the rim well. UC-Irvine locks down the paint. UC-Riverside would rather shoot threes anyway.
It’s easy to make too much of matchups, but when they just reinforce what the overall numbers indicate, it’s fair to trust them.
Pick: UC-Riverside +1.5 (-110). Low confidence.
