Editor’s Note: For a little more than three years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -2% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 2,119 published picks, not including bets that remain pending, like futures. That is, of course, unprofitable, and while our projections do indicate we’ll get back to even or profitable by the end of the week, with conference tournament futures ongoing, we want to be transparent with you here.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. KenPom is heavily used in making college basketball picks.
More conference tournament futures today, for which the odds come from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline due to the absence of a current/accurate Vegas consensus. First, though:
Arkansas vs. LSU
Arkansas enters the SEC Tournament hot, having won fourteen of their last sixteen and not having lost by double digits since 2021.
That has too much sway here.
LSU’s every bit as good a team as Arkansas, and for as flawed as the Tigers’ offense is, the defense can always keep them in games. Look for the Hogs to struggle to get the shots they want from the paint.
Pick: LSU +3 (-108). Medium confidence.
St. Bonaventure vs. Saint Louis
St. Bonaventure swept a back-to-back with SLU a month ago. That has little bearing here. For one thing, they were both close games, but for another—it was just two games. The Orioles have taken two games plenty of times from the Red Sox, Rays, and Yankees in recent years.
Saint Louis is less heralded, but they’re the better team. They should show it this afternoon.
Pick: Saint Louis +1.5 (-110). Medium confidence.
Montana State vs. Weber State
Montana State revealed that it’s been dealing with injuries and sickness this week, but…everybody played yesterday. And everybody played well. And this late in the season, who isn’t banged up?
Pick: Montana State +1 (-112). Medium confidence.
And now, the futures:
Big Ten Conference Men’s Basketball Tournament
We’ve got Michigan State, Indiana, and Penn State all alive, which gives us some leverage here. We’re going to use that to drop a bunch of units on the Hawkeyes, who might be the best team in the Big Ten and have a matchup comparably easy to that of Purdue today, going against a mediocre Rutgers team (I’m still bitter about that Minnesota game, Steve Pikiell). They should roll, we should get at least one of the other three through, we should get to the Big Ten semi’s with two of the four teams alive, including possibly the favorite.
Pick: Iowa to win +360. Medium confidence.
Pick: Iowa to win +360. Medium confidence.
Pick: Iowa to win +360. Medium confidence.
Pick: Iowa to win +360. Medium confidence.
Atlantic 10 Conference Men’s Basketball Tournament
VCU won’t get any easy ones, but they’ll be no more than a one or two-point underdog the rest of the tournament, and they’ve got a favorable matchup today. The most likely semifinal setup is them playing Dayton while Davidson plays Saint Louis, and that’s a wide-open setup. We’ll take them while we can.
Pick: VCU to win +550. Medium confidence.
Pick: VCU to win +550. Medium confidence.
SEC Men’s Basketball Tournament
As we said above, we like LSU’s chances against Arkansas today. As for Mississippi State…you know how offensive rebounding is something analysts look for in potential Cinderellas in March? Extending possessions is Mississippi State’s bread and butter. Thank you to Vanderbilt for the leverage. Let’s use a little of it.
Pick: LSU to win +1000. Medium confidence.
Pick: LSU to win +1000. Medium confidence.
Pick: Mississippi State to win +3300. Low confidence.
American Athletic Conference Men’s Basketball Tournament
UCF’s road, if it can get past Memphis, is easier than it appears, with SMU not of Memphis’s caliber and a real possibility Houston goes down today or tomorrow. It’s worth a shot, especially considering Penny Hardaway’s team hasn’t been the picture of consistency this year.
Pick: UCF to win +2800. Low confidence.
SWAC Men’s Basketball Tournament
We’ll gladly grab these at low cost, with Alcorn State often a mess and Texas Southern having played plenty of bad games this year.
Pick: Grambling State to win +900. Low confidence.
Pick: Alabama A&M to win +1200. Low confidence.
MAC Men’s Basketball Tournament
Toledo’s the best team in the MAC, but Akron gets them in a mid-afternoon game one day after Toledo looked out of sync in a morning game. That might not mean much, but it helps back up the numbers, which like the value here. If Akron can win today, they’ll be close to a tossup against either Ohio or Kent State.
Pick: Akron to win +800. Low confidence.
MEAC Men’s Basketball Tournament
These aren’t a knock on Norfolk State as much as they’re a knock on North Carolina Central, who’s getting some inexplicable love from the market here.
Pick: Coppin State to win +800. Low confidence.
Pick: Morgan State to win +900. Low confidence.
Big West Conference Men’s Basketball Tournament
A pick on the top seed…novel. Of course, the top seed’s an underdog here, but it’s still a helpful play for us to pair with our outstanding Hawaii future. Nice to have two of the four.
Pick: Long Beach State to win +375. Medium confidence.
Pac-12 Conference Men’s Basketball Tournament
There’s value here even before considering Kerr Kriisa’s injury.
Pick: UCLA to win +175. Medium confidence.
Pick: UCLA to win +175. Medium confidence.
Pick: UCLA to win +175. Medium confidence.
Pick: UCLA to win +175. Medium confidence.
Pick: UCLA to win +175. Medium confidence.
