Editor’s Note: For about two and a half years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. There have been moments of elation (the Nationals winning the 2019 World Series, the first two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). There have been moments of frustration (the Dodgers’ 2020 NLCS comeback, the second two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 1.0% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 1,440 published picks, not including pending futures. And while 1.0% might not sound enormous, you can do a lot with it over time.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
We’ve got a future today, and the line on that comes from Bovada due to the lack of a current/accurate Vegas consensus. First, though:
Cincinnati @ St. Louis
How many times can we say Luis Castillo is probably fine and still believe it? At least one more.
His xERA’s only 4.29. His FIP’s just 4.78. His velocity is at its 2019 levels, and his spin rate on everything but his slider is up from last year. Yes, the strikeouts are down, and the walks are up a little bit, and those xERA and FIP numbers aren’t what they should be. But we aren’t saying Luis Castillo is himself. We’re just saying he won’t suffer the .371 BABIP and 54.2% LOB rate forever.
Pick: Cincinnati to win +122. Low confidence.
World Series
No opportunities today to broaden our portfolio, unless we were to take a negative-eROI play, which seems dumb pretty much all the time but especially in early June. So, we’re going deeper.
There’s plenty to like about the Astros (or at least to like about bets on the Astros—not much to like about the Astros themselves). They’re third in baseball in position player fWAR. Their pitching’s fWAR’s at least in the top 20. That latter thing can be corrected, to an extent, as the Trade Deadline approaches. Yes, they’re in a scrap with the A’s, but they’re percentage points back of a wildcard spot right now, and with the Yankees scuffling there’s a chance the path through the American League side of the bracket ends up more favorable than initially expected.
Pick: Houston to win +1600. Low confidence.
