Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –2% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 7,555 published picks, not including pending futures; and an average return on investment, per pick, of +2% across 2,268 completed high and medium-confidence picks. The low confidence picks are the problem. Most of our picks are in the low confidence category.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. We rely heavily on FanGraphs for all our MLB action. We rely heavily on Nate Silver’s presidential election model for our election futures.
Active markets today: MLB moneylines and MLB futures.
Single-day MLB bets: Last year, we finished the season up about 8%, betting strictly moneylines. We’ve tried a similar approach this year. We’re 85–74 so far, down 5.61 units. It seems we did not, in fact, find something that worked. We keep trying, though. And we’re up 2.85 units so far this week.
MLB futures: We have a great history with these, though the last two years we’ve only made small profits. In both 2019 and 2021, I believe we recorded better than a 50% ROI. In 2020, we lost about 25% of our portfolio. We began this season with 750 units in our portfolio, with the intent being to spend 500 of those over the regular season and keep 250 in reserve for the postseason and/or hedging & arbitrage opportunities. We place two medium-confidence bets most weekdays until sometime in September when the scenarios become more specific.
Miami @ Philadelphia
Maybe I’m naïve, but I just don’t get the impression the Phillies will be that bothered by the absences of Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber. They’re impactful for sure, but I don’t think they’re impactful on the psyche. This line implies the opposite.
Pick: Philadelphia to win –205. Low confidence. (Tyler and Sánchez must start.)
World Series
To put this in some perspective: The Cubs are at 90-to-1.
The Mets are all the way up to .500, they’re a game out of playoff position, and they’re the fifth-best NL team on paper. 100-to-1 is generous of the books.
Pick: New York (NL) to win +10000. Medium confidence.
AL Central
This also presents great value, although not as spectacular as that Mets line. The Twins have a lot of ground to make up, but they have the easier schedule the rest of the way, and BaseRuns says they’ve been better so far this season than the Guardians. It’s worth the shot.
Pick: Minnesota to win +350. Medium confidence.
