Editor’s Note: Joe would downplay how successful this is, but over a sample size of 302 completed bets (this doesn’t include outstanding futures picks), his picks published here and back at All Things NIT, our former site, have an average return on investment of 5% when weighted by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high), meaning he’s been good enough to consistently make the people money.
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Five picks for today’s games, along with two plays in the futures market.
As always:
- Lines come from the Vegas Consensus at the time this is written, or the best approximation I can find of it online.
- Data from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, Baseball Savant, Spotrac, and ESPN is often used and/or cited.
- The writeups often aren’t justifications of the picks. Often, they’re instead just notes about something or someone related to the pick. This is because in general, picks are being made because the numbers I’m using indicate the pick is beyond a certain confidence threshold, and I’m not coming across enough red flags to pass on it.
Texas @ Tampa Bay
Lance Lynn enters tonight’s start leading the American League in fWAR, weighing in at 3.3 wins above a replacement-level starter to date. bWAR disagrees, pegging him at only 2.7, but in either case, Lynn’s performance so far this year has been noteworthy.
While he has only a 4.32 ERA, he’s already clocked exactly 100 innings, and his FIP is an exciting 3.06. His strikeouts are at an all-time high (since he became a full-time starter in 2012), and his walks are at an all-time low (no caveat needed).
What seemed a strange deal for the rebuilding Rangers when they signed him this offseason ($30M over three years) looks pretty good today.
Pick: Over 8 (-115). Medium confidence.
Pittsburgh @ Milwaukee
While Christian Yelich rightfully headlines the Brewers’ offense, his primary sidekicks haven’t been too bad themselves. Mike Moustakas has been one of the best infielders in the game, delivering 2.7 WAR so far, and Yasmani Grandal has been far and away baseball’s best catcher, with 3.0 WAR to his name.
Grandal’s value lies partially in his defense. He’s one of the best pitch-framers in the league. But on the offensive side of the ball, he’s having a career season, which is saying something for a man with 20 or more home runs in each of the last three years.
Grandal is slashing .266/.377/.536, good for a 133 wRC+. He already has 18 home runs. His strikeout numbers are down from their norm. Virtually every offensive statistic is trending positively for Grandal, who at 30 years old, is more than baseball’s best catcher to date. He’s baseball’s best catcher. Period.
Pick: Over 10.5 (-115). Low confidence.
Los Angeles @ Colorado
Hyun-Jin Ryu is presumably a leading candidate to start the All-Star Game, with a 1.27 ERA over 99 innings of work. As with many pitchers in that stratosphere, FIP warns of regression, but even then, regression to a 2.50 mark (where FIP has him) is nothing in which to be disappointed.
Perhaps the most remarkable thing about Ryu’s first half is that he’s only walked six batters to date. Over 15 starts. In other words, he’s pitching like 2016 Clayton Kershaw.
Ryu has struggled with injuries of all kinds since coming to the MLB, which makes this year especially encouraging, as he’s already closing in on his highest innings count since 2014. At the same time, that’s still a concerning trait. With the division well in hand, don’t be surprised if the Dodgers start resting their ace now and then.
Pick: Over 12.5 (-105). Low confidence.
Oakland @ Anaheim
As is noted in his FanGraphs 2019 preseason writeup, Shohei Ohtani’s biggest rookie year downfall—at the plate—was his struggle against left-handed pitching. While he hit righties to the tune of a scalding 182 wRC+, his number against lefties was only 84.
It’s unclear what caused this change, but in an early sample, the discrepancy has disappeared. Ohtani’s wRC+ against lefties? 137. Against righties? 129.
Interestingly, while his batting average and on-base percentage are better against lefties so far, his slugging percentage is better against righties.
Because it’s an early sample (Ohtani missed roughly the first quarter of the season), it’s still a small one, but it’s possible Ohtani has fixed his problem against left-handed pitching.
Which would be a strong improvement for the Angels as a whole.
Pick: Over 10 (-110). Low confidence.
St. Louis @ San Diego
Petco Park has, since its inception, been known as a pitcher’s park. And while the Padres moving the fences in prior to the 2013 season brought offense up, the park was still, on the whole, a nice place to pitch.
But this year, it’s something else, with the lowest Park Factor (a measurement that compares a scoring environment with the rest of the league) of any stadium in baseball. Its raw number—.713, meaning 71.3% as many runs are scored there as in the average stadium, competition being equal—is the lowest it’s ever been.
Now, this doesn’t mean Petco is transforming back into a pitcher’s haven. But relative to its peers, it’s the best place for a pitcher to be right now.
Pick: Under 9 (-115). Low confidence.
MLB Futures: Who will win the NLCS?
I’d been holding off on making more NL Pennant picks. Entering today, I had only four picks down: one each on the Dodgers (+400, 3/27), Cubs (+450, 5/22), Nationals (+550, 3/27), and Braves (+1100, 5/22), all at low confidence. It was a good place to be. If any of the four made the World Series, it would be a profitable market for me, and for the National League, these are the four most likely World Series representatives. If I made one more move, the Dodgers would be flipped to a net even, and two more moves would make them a net loss.
This isn’t the best way to evaluate futures picks, though. Boxing oneself in for fear of a loss can limit upside. Which, along with perplexingly favorable lines, is why it’s time to pull the trigger once more each on the Cubs and Nationals.
The Cubs, leaders of the tightest division in baseball, are listed at +700 to win the NLCS. While they’re certainly more vulnerable than the Braves and Dodgers, they’re still more likely than not to win their division, and with a better pitching staff than that of Atlanta (at this time), if they can hold on in the Central they’re at worst poised to be a tossup against their most likely NLDS foe. This is why FanGraphs has the two equally likely to make the World Series, despite the Braves being a more certain bet to play at all in October. The Dodgers, of course, will be tough for anyone to beat, but of all the NL challengers, the Cubs have the best chance of anyone…
…with the possible exception of Washington. The Nationals reached .500 yesterday on the season, rising to 16-7 over the month of June. They’re still a few games back in the wild card race, but their next nine come against the Tigers, Marlins, and Royals, so it wouldn’t be a surprise to see them enter the All-Star Break in possession of a playoff spot.
Of course, the Nationals are much more likely to play in the wild card game than to win the East (though again, Atlanta’s pitching staff could become a problem fast), which holds them back. But at +1800, with Max Scherzer their most likely wild card game starter, and with Stephen Strasburg and Patrick Corbin behind him in the rotation, it isn’t far-fetched to envision Washington giving the Dodgers a lot of problems in the Division Series.
There’s a long way to go for both these teams. The Cubs could stand to upgrade in the outfield and at second base, and have relied on the same arms in the bullpen for quite some time, which rightly provokes fears of wear and tear. The back end of Washington’s rotation is a question mark, and their bullpen, while better than it was for a while there, is still far from an asset. Both seem reluctant to take on more salary: The Nationals are up against a luxury tax threshold, and the Cubs have consistently had one of the largest payrolls in baseball. This is less discouraging for the Cubs, who have a number of players who could upgrade the team from within (Ben Zobrist, Ian Happ, Brandon Morrow), and have a more vague set of financial constraints. But still, at these odds, it’s hard not to take two of the four most likely National League champions.
Pick: Chicago (NL) to win NLCS (+700). Low confidence.
Pick: Washington to win NLCS (+1800). Low confidence.
