Editor’s Note: Joe would downplay how successful this is, but over a sample size of 286 completed bets (this doesn’t include outstanding futures picks), his picks published here and back at All Things NIT, our former site, have an average return on investment of 4% when weighted by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high), meaning he’s been good enough to consistently make the people money.
As always, use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose following Joe’s picks. At the same time, though, you’re also responsible for any money you win.
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Two picks for today’s games, and one futures pick.
As always:
- Lines come from the Vegas Consensus at the time this is written, or the best approximation I can find of it online.
- Data from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, Baseball Savant, Spotrac, and ESPN is often used and/or cited.
- The writeups often aren’t justifications of the picks. Often, they’re instead just notes about something or someone related to the pick. This is because in general, picks are being made because the numbers I’m using indicate the pick is beyond a certain confidence threshold, and I’m not coming across enough red flags to pass on it.
San Diego @ Pittsburgh
The Pirates’ hot start could have been expected to fade, but it’s nonetheless a letdown for Pittsburgh to find themselves in last place, sporting what’s clearly the worst roster in their division.
Still, there are bright spots: Trevor Williams and Joe Musgrove are both pitching rather well (though each has suffered some bad sequencing luck). Felipe Vázquez and Starling Marte could each fetch significant hauls at the trade deadline if Pittsburgh were to sell them. Josh Bell is beginning to fulfill his vast potential to its absolute limits. And there’s Bryan Reynolds.
Reynolds, a 24-year-old rookie who came over from San Francisco in the Andrew McCutchen deal, was added to the 40-man roster and promoted in late April. Over 53 games, he’s slugging .571, having accumulated 1.9 WAR. And while he’s certainly benefitting from a near-comical BABIP (.446), his XBA (expected batting average, according to Statcast metrics of contact quality) is .308, an average above which the worst qualifying hitter to date (Tim Anderson, currently hitting .312) has a 119 wRC+. In human terms, even if Reynolds was only getting average results out of his balls in play, he’d at worst be hitting something like 20% better than an average major leaguer.
Rookies having hot starts and fading isn’t unusual, but the former second-round pick and Vanderbilt product has succeeded at every level of the minor leagues, and has flashed all three of the offensive tools (speed, contact, power). Could he fade? Yes. But might he be something valuable for years to come? Yes.
Pick: Pittsburgh to win -114. Low confidence.
Cincinnati @ Milwaukee
The Reds swept the Astros, which isn’t the most shocking thing in the world, but certainly got them some attention. What’s more impressive is they did it without using the best pitcher in their rotation, a 29-year-old righty who stands only 5’10” and walked almost four batters per nine innings last year.
Yes, Sonny Gray is good once again: the diamond atop Cincinnati pitching coach Derek Johnson’s crown. He’s still walking more than 9% of batters, but he’s striking out 26.7% of them, a career-high. His opponents’ average exit velocity is down nearly a full mph from last year, and his ground ball rate has risen more than 10% from 2018.
While he only has a 3-5 record to show for it, Gray has been the Reds’ ace to date, posting a 3.77 ERA backed by a 3.22 FIP.
Likely at Johnson’s direction, he’s traded out a third of his sinkers for four-seamers, and about a quarter of his curveballs for sliders, which have always been his most effective pitch by Whiff% and XBA. The result is a reclaimed pitcher anchoring a rotation with a small but real chance of sneaking into the playoff field.
Pick: Cincinnati to win +111. Low confidence.
MLB Futures
We knew Giancarlo Stanton would be coming back from the IL. We knew Aaron Judge would be as well. We even knew the Yankees would be favored in all but possibly one of their last six games.
But we did not know they’d trade for Edwin Encarnación, we did not know they’d sweep the Rays, and we did not know the Astros would fall victim to the awakening of that formerly (and still, on the aggregate) underperforming ballclub from Cincinnati.
The result?
The Yankees’ chances to win the World Series have risen nearly 50% over the last six days, according to FanGraphs, from 10.8% to 15.8%. Their chances of winning the pennant have leapt from 18.4% to 26.4%. And their chances of winning the division have skyrocketed from 46.5% to 76.7%.
The result of these six memorable days is that the Yankees are in the best situation they’ve been in all year, yet odds can be found on them that are no different from what they were on Opening Day.
Personally, having the following picks down on the World Series market, grabbing the Yankees while they’re here flips the scenario in which they win the title from a net loss to a net profit in the market, without turning any other team from a profit into a loss.
Picks already logged:
(3/27) New York (AL) to win World Series +600. Low confidence.
(3/27) Houston to win World Series +700. Low confidence.
(3/27) Los Angeles (NL) to win World Series +800. Low confidence.
(3/27) Cleveland to win World Series +1200. Low confidence.
(5/22) Minnesota to win World Series +1700. Low confidence.
(5/30) Los Angeles (NL) to win World Series +400. Low confidence.
(5/30) Chicago (NL) to win World Series +1200. Low confidence.
(5/30) Boston to win World Series +1300. Low confidence.
(5/30) Washington to win World Series +4500. Low confidence.
Using FanGraphs’ odds, doubling down on the Yankees makes my expected ROI in the market 19%, and of the primary title contenders (more than 2% likely to win the World Series), I only stand to suffer complete losses should the Braves or Rays win (I have the Braves at +1100 to win the NLCS and an effective +165 to win their division, which would negate a lot of the loss in that scenario), and will only lose 30% on the market should the Astros triumph.
This market isn’t cornered by any stretch, and the likelihood I net a profit in it is only roughly 64%, but I’m in a better place here than I was this morning, thanks to a fortunate coinciding of events.
Pick: New York (AL) to win World Series +600. Low confidence.
