Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -4% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 2,934 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of 0.3% across 762 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. For futures bets and motorsports bets, odds are taken from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline as our best approximation of the Vegas consensus, which isn’t currently/accurately available online. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
With no hockey game tonight, we’re going to let the markets settle out, especially with our bankroll getting kind of narrow for the moment on that front. We’ll likely be hedging by betting the Lightning moneyline in Game 6, as we said yesterday, but we’ll wait for tomorrow to do that.
We’ll wait until Sunday for NASCAR and IndyCar, but we’ll try to have our F1 pick in tomorrow before qualifying. Today, just the end of the week for our MLB futures. For portfolio context on that: The MLB portfolio started with 520 units, with 520 more units in reserve in case we need them to hedge.
AL West
Nothing new, value-wise. This remains the most useful to our portfolio, so we’ll keep piling on.
Pick: Houston to win -800. Medium confidence.
Pick: Houston to win -800. Medium confidence.
