Editor’s Note: For about two and a half years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. There have been moments of elation (the Nationals winning the 2019 World Series, the first two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). There have been moments of frustration (the Dodgers’ 2020 NLCS comeback, the second two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 0.7% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 1,470 published picks, not including pending futures. And while 0.7% might not sound enormous, you can do a lot with it over time.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
Toronto @ Tampa Bay
Alek Manoah is doing the kinds of things you want your top prospects to do. In seven starts, he’s got a 2.70 ERA, a 4.46 FIP, and a 3.41 xERA, with the damage almost solely coming on solo home runs in two specific starts. A week ago tonight, he struck out ten Rays, walked only one, and turned in seven shutout innings. Don’t expect that kind of dominance tonight, but don’t underestimate him, either.
Pick: Toronto to win +110. Low confidence.
New York (AL) @ Houston
A question here is whether the Yankees’ bullpen is good enough to hold a lead, especially with Aroldis Chapman’s recent struggles. Given how badly they need wins, that shouldn’t be a terrible concern, especially coming off a light night for relievers. If Nestor Cortes can hand Aaron Boone a lead, expect the manager to pull out all the stops to hold onto this.
Pick: New York (AL) to win +123. Low confidence.
