Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –2% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 7,570 published picks, not including pending futures; and an average return on investment, per pick, of +2% across 2,268 completed high and medium-confidence picks. The low confidence picks are the problem. Most of our picks are in the low confidence category.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. We rely heavily on FanGraphs for all our MLB action. We rely heavily on Nate Silver’s presidential election model for our election futures.
Active markets today: MLB moneylines and futures.
Single-day MLB bets: Last year, we finished the season up about 8%, betting strictly moneylines. We’ve tried a similar approach this year. We’re 92–81 so far, down 5.61 units. We had a good week last week. We’re having a bad week this week. Make of it all what you will.
MLB futures: We have a great history with these, though the last two years we’ve only made small profits. In both 2019 and 2021, I believe we recorded better than a 50% ROI. In 2020, we lost about 25% of our portfolio. We began this season with 750 units in our portfolio, with the intent being to spend 500 of those over the regular season and keep 250 in reserve for the postseason and/or hedging & arbitrage opportunities. We place two medium-confidence bets most weekdays until sometime in September when the scenarios become more specific.
Anaheim @ Chicago (NL)
This is pricey for a team as bad as the Cubs, but the Angels are terrible right now, Luis Rengifo is hurt, they flew in last night from Oakland and are playing a day game, and Justin Steele’s been pitching well. It’s the best thing we see today.
Pick: Chicago to win –186. Low confidence. (Canning and Steele must start.)
ALCS
We wrote on Wednesday about how the Rays aren’t giving up, even having traded away Aaron Civale. We didn’t mention their upcoming schedule.
It’s tough—they play seven games against the Yankees over the next two weeks, plus three each against the Rangers and Guardians—but the flipside of this is that if they do get hot, these odds are going to drop like a stone. We know it’s a longshot, but as we often say, that’s part of how these portfolios work.
Pick: Tampa Bay to win +6000. Medium confidence.
World Series
Same thinking here. The eROI isn’t quite as high, but it’s comparable, and the nice thing about this upside is that we can get the Rays “maxed out” (the point at which a team is so profitable in our portfolio that we don’t care to place any more bets on them) faster.
Pick: Tampa Bay to win +12500. Medium confidence.
