Editor’s Note: Joe would downplay how successful this is, but over a sample size of 324 completed bets (this doesn’t include outstanding futures picks), his picks published here and back at All Things NIT, our former site, have an average return on investment of 5% when weighted by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high), meaning he’s been good enough to consistently make the people money.
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Two picks for today’s games.
As always:
- Lines come from the Vegas Consensus at the time this is written, or the best approximation I can find of it online.
- Data from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, Baseball Savant, Spotrac, and ESPN is often used and/or cited.
- The writeups often aren’t justifications of the picks. Often, they’re instead just notes about something or someone related to the pick. This is because in general, picks are being made because the numbers I’m using indicate the pick is beyond a certain confidence threshold, and I’m not coming across enough red flags to pass on it.
New York (AL) @ Tampa Bay
While two-way top prospect Brendan McKay went 0 for 4 in his hitting debut, his first outing as a major league pitcher was a roaring success. Over six innings, he held the Rangers to one hit and one walk, striking out three and keeping them scoreless.
Today, he has to deal with the Yankees—the league’s highest-scoring offense to date.
McKay succeeded against the Rangers by forcing a lot of soft contact, but he did get three of his 18 outs on balls hit with exit velocities over 100 mph. None of the three were hit in the air (two were lineouts, one was a groundout), a trend he’ll want to keep consistent.
Still, a tough second draw for the pioneering rookie.
Pick: Over 8.5 (+100). Low confidence.
Oakland @ Seattle
The Mariners, as a whole, have the MLB’s third-worst FIP. Which, combined with the league’s worst defense (as measured by FanGraphs), has resulted in them allowing more runs than even the Orioles.
Rookie starter Yusei Kikuchi has been a reliable presence in the Seattle rotation, albeit not the most successful one. His ERA sits at 5.12, and FIP thinks he’s lucky to have been that unscathed, pegging him at 5.47. He’s allowed 18 home runs through 18 starts, which isn’t good, but doesn’t have to be damning. The league leader in home runs allowed (Justin Verlander) has a 2.86 ERA.
Pick: Over 10 (-105). Low confidence.
