Editor’s Note: For almost two years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. There have been moments of greatness (the Nationals winning the World Series last year, the first two months of last college basketball season). There have been moments of frustration (the second two months last college basketball season). Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 6% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 932 published picks, not including pending futures. And while 6% might not be a great annual return on overall investments, if you strategize well with timing, you can turn daily 6%’s into a whole lot more than 6% over the course of a year.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas Consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. The blurbs aren’t always explanations of the picks—sometimes they are, but often they’re just notes related to the contest, to avoid redundancy. Data and predictions from FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks. Data from Baseball Savant and ESPN is also often used.
The Cardinals are the latest team to have a COVID outbreak, yet the MLB soldiers on. As I’ve hinted in this space, my initial assumption was that if a team had a large enough outbreak to neuter their roster, another team was likely to have one too, and the season would be canceled.
That was half-correct. Outbreaks are more common than I expected. The MLB is more tolerant of them than I expected. I suppose those things are correlated.
A day at a time, I suppose. Three more picks for this particular day:
Boston @ New York (AL)
What to make of the Red Sox…
Their pitching staff—Ryan Weber starts tonight, with a 5.34 ERA over 118 career innings in a six-year span—does not inspire confidence. Mitch Moreland is reportedly ailed with leg soreness.
And yet…
Xander Bogaerts and Rafael Devers should heat up soon enough. Christian Vázquez, even when he returns to earth offensively, may well be one of the best backstops in the game. And that outfield…
With uncertainty on the hill for the pinstriped in the form of Jordan Montgomery, and Gleyber Torres potentially limited after taking one to the elbow last night, there’s some value here.
Pick: Boston +1.5 (-110). Low confidence.
Cincinnati @ Detroit
With Mike Moustakas and Nick Senzel back, the Reds offense broke out Wednesday. Don’t be surprised by an encore tonight in Detroit.
Pick: Over 8.5 (-105). Low confidence.
Chicago (AL) @ Kansas City
The White Sox are in last place. This will be difficult to maintain, with the Tigers and Royals both doing that thing bowls do as they slowly fill with water. But for now, the White Sox are in last place.
This was supposed to be a year for the guys on the South Side. It may yet materialize to be one, especially with the expanded playoffs. But their pitching is not good, and their bats have yet to be enough to outweigh that. They’re deservedly favored in K.C., but the Royals are one of only three teams on the Sox’ schedule capable of making them a favorite these days. And even with that established, they’re getting too much credit from bettors.
Pick: Kansas City +1.5 (-115). Low confidence.
