Editor’s Note: For about two and a half years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. There have been moments of elation (the Nationals winning the 2019 World Series, the first two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). There have been moments of frustration (the Dodgers’ 2020 NLCS comeback, the second two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 0.8% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 1,464 published picks, not including pending futures. And while 0.8% might not sound enormous, you can do a lot with it over time.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
Just futures today, with each line coming from Bovada due to the absence of a current/accurate Vegas consensus.
NL East
There’s a chance the injuries catch up to the Mets and that the Nationals do not, and after all, Atlanta does have those bats and the ability to make some moves at the deadline if they have another few good weeks here. Shoring up our position on this market.
Pick: Atlanta to win +725. Low confidence.
NLCS
They’ve got position in the standings, they shouldn’t have to play the Dodgers or Padres in the Division Series, and at least for the moment, they’ve got the pitching. The Brewers should be feeling good.
Pick: Milwaukee to win +700. Low confidence.
