Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -5% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 3,385 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of 0.3% across 762 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us). Our ETA for having the overall number back profitable is currently November 7th, the likeliest date of a World Series Game 7 and the eve of both college basketball season and Election Day.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. For futures bets (in both sports and politics) and motorsports bets, odds are taken from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline as our best approximation of the Vegas consensus, which isn’t currently/accurately available online. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks. FiveThirtyEight’s SPI is heavily used in making soccer picks.
Futures today, and we’ll be doubling up on the MLB ones after missing yesterday (everything is fine, but we do all have Covid). For context on each portfolio: We started the season with 520 units in our MLB futures portfolio, with another 520 in reserve in case we need them to hedge down the line. We’re starting the season with 50 units in our EFL Championship futures portfolio, with another 50 in reserve in case we need them to hedge down the line.
EFL Championship
We’re using SPI for these, and the bones of that system is that it’s elo-based but that it has a major offseason adjustment based on the estimated transfer value of a team’s roster. What it doesn’t do is account for the possibility of more transfer acquisitions, either in the remainder of this window or in January.
There’s more value available on a few clubs to be relegated, at least in SPI’s eyes, but we have some qualms there because of this last piece concerning transfers. If Swansea, for instance, is in danger of relegation come January, it’s possible they’d be more aggressive in staving it off with roster changes than other clubs can afford to be. Am I correct about that? I don’t know with a lot of confidence, but that’s the thought process here. Our futures are traditionally a good source of value, so we’re trying them here in a new sport, hoping our approach works even if the model we use is a little more imperfect than FanGraphs’s Playoff Odds is for baseball.
Pick: Sheffield United to be promoted +350. Low confidence.
ALCS
Back to our comfort zone down here. We’re going back to the Blue Jays/Astros pairing on the ALCS side. The Blue Jays pennant future is the most valuable one out there right now by pure eROI, using FanGraphs’s Playoff Odds and making no trade deadline adjustment. We don’t think the trade deadline will dramatically worsen the Blue Jays’ chances. For Houston: We like having value on them because the Yankees are a liability for us, and one of those two winning the AL is more than 50% likely. The Astros are only barely profitable for us within the World Series market, but the value isn’t as good there, so we’re adding to their ALCS pile while there’s value on that front. We’d like to have approximately 1.5x the upside on Houston as we have downside on the Yankees for the sake of hedging, but that’s a long way off from being too active of a concern.
Pick: Houston to win +225. Medium confidence.
Pick: Toronto to win +775. Medium confidence.
World Series
We’re crossing our fingers that the Brewers will put the Cardinals away. That would help us a lot on the division side, but we also have a decent chunk of upside on Milwaukee in postseason futures and we don’t have a single postseason unit down on St. Louis. We’re adding a bit to them here, and to the Mets as well. Neither is on Atlanta’s level of World Series upside for us, or even on the level of upside Toronto has for us on the ALCS, but we’d be very happy with either.
Pick: New York (NL) to win +750. Medium confidence.
Pick: Milwaukee to win +2500. Medium confidence.
