Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –0.7% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 5,065 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +3.1% across 1,617 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
Both the moneyline and the futures today. The futures will be off this weekend, but this may be the last weekend they’re definitely off. We’ll be playing the situation by ear from here.
Single-game MLB bets: On the season, we’re 64–48–4, we’re up 12.00 units, we’re up 10% (the average line on our winners has been –107). April was great, May was bad, June was good. July’s been great, but we’d love to finish it even stronger.
MLB futures: We began the season with 750 units in our MLB futures portfolio, with the intent being to spend 500 of those over the regular season and keep 250 in reserve for the postseason and/or hedging & arbitrage opportunities. This is circular, because we use FanGraphs probabilities to guide our picks, but if we use FanGraphs probabilities and include today’s plays, our mean expected return on the 750 units (based on what we’ve bet so far) is 109.89 units, or 10.6%.
Cincinnati @ Los Angeles
The Reds are still, on paper, the Reds. This could change soon—they could get aggressive at the trade deadline, and they probably should—but at the moment, they are merely the Reds. Bobby Miller continues to exceed expectations, and we only need him to meet them tonight. It’s rare to see value on odds this short.
Pick: Los Angeles to win –220. Low confidence. (Williamson and Miller must start.)
AL East
For our first future, we’re in a little deeper on the Rays to win the East. This is the only market where we have upside on the Rays, and we have a lot of upside on the Orioles in the ALCS, so when there’s value here, we’re happy to take it.
Pick: Tampa Bay to win +120. Medium confidence.
NL Central
For our second, we’re taking the Brewers, and we’re a little hesitant to do it because it digs our potential Reds hole that much deeper, but we think it’s the play that makes the most sense for us today. We’re in big trouble if the Reds win the NL Central, we’re in big trouble if the Guardians win the AL Central, one way to try to dodge a disaster on either front is to make the upside on the favorite in each of those divisions bigger. Also, we’re seeing opportunity on the Cubs but we’re too close to the Brewers being a break-even scenario to take that.
Pick: Milwaukee to win –190. Medium confidence.
