Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –2.0% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 7,617 published picks, not including pending futures; and an average return on investment, per pick, of +2.6% across 2,293 completed high and medium-confidence picks. The low confidence picks are the problem. Most of our picks are in the low confidence category.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. We rely heavily on FanGraphs for all our MLB action. We rely heavily on Nate Silver’s presidential election model for our election futures.
Active markets today: MLB moneylines and futures.
Single-day MLB bets: Last year, we finished the season up about 8%, betting strictly moneylines. We’ve tried a similar approach this year. We’re 103–90–2 so far, down 7.58 units. We’ve gotten within reach of profitability a few times this year, but we haven’t been able to sustain a surge. It’s been a bad week, but we did narrowly hold on yesterday betting a big favorite.
MLB futures: We have a great history with these, though the last two years we’ve only made small profits. In both 2019 and 2021, I believe we recorded better than a 50% ROI. In 2020, we lost about 25% of our portfolio. We began this season with 750 units in our portfolio, with the intent being to spend 500 of those over the regular season and keep 250 in reserve for the postseason and/or hedging & arbitrage opportunities. We place two medium-confidence bets most weekdays until sometime in September when the scenarios become more specific.
Minnesota @ Detroit
Pablo López was a prime positive regression candidate all year: Good track record, strong FIP and xERA, weak ERA. That regression is happening. Over his last five starts, López has averaged eight strikeouts, one walk, and two earned runs over just over six innings pitched. He’s had some favorable matchups in there—the A’s, Mariners, and White Sox—but the guy is so young and so good that we’re believers. The Twins are hard to trust, and the Tigers have often been feisty, but Keider Montero’s underperforming already rough expectations. We’ll take the visitors.
Pick: Minnesota to win –175. Low confidence. (López and Montero must start.)
Miami @ Milwaukee
Across Lake Michigan, Freddy Peralta gets the Marlins right after the Marlins’ latest sale. It’s hard to win when you’re in the process of selling off parts, and the Marlins just played an extra-inning game yesterday.
Pick: Milwaukee to win –233. Low confidence. (Rogers and Peralta must start.)
World Series
Trade deadline activity is definitely actively changing things, but it isn’t changing them enough to erase this value. In the Diamondbacks’ case, it’s possible it’ll continue to increase the value. The portfolio remains in fine shape.
Pick: Minnesota to win +2000. Medium confidence.
Pick: Arizona to win +6500. Medium confidence.
