Editor’s Note: Over a sample size of 374 completed bets (this doesn’t include outstanding futures picks), Joe’s picks published here and back at All Things NIT, our former site, have an average return on investment of 6% when weighted by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high), meaning he’s been good enough to consistently make the people money.
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Three picks today.
As always:
- Lines come from the Vegas Consensus at the time this is written, or the best approximation I can find of it online.
- Data from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, Baseball Savant, Spotrac, and ESPN is often used and/or cited.
- The writeups often aren’t justifications of the picks. Often, they’re instead just notes about something or someone related to the pick. This is because in general, picks are being made because the numbers I’m using indicate the pick is beyond a certain confidence threshold, and I’m not coming across enough red flags to pass on it.
Los Angeles @ Washington
Trea Turner became the 26th baseball player to hit for two cycles in his MLB career the other night, the latest high point for the young shortstop.
Whether it be his injuries, his dual use in the infield and outfield in 2016, or something else entirely, Turner doesn’t come up that often in discussions of baseball’s shortstop boom. I’m guilty of it, having talked shortstops at least twice in the last month and a half and having neglected him both times. But at 26, he’s a part of it, and offensively, he’s having his best year since he was a rookie.
Turner enters tonight with a 113 wRC+. He’s walking less often than last year, and he’s striking out more, but his power numbers are up, namely his doubles. He’s already got 21 of them in fewer than 300 plate appearances, a rate in line with Alex Bregman’s last year, when he led the MLB in two-baggers.
Turner’s exit velocity is noticeably higher this season, up to 90.2 mph after hanging around 89 in his first three-plus seasons. But this alone likely isn’t responsible for the doubles uptick, as his expected slugging percentage, according to Statcast, is only .436, noticeably less than its actual status of .487. Instead, it’s possible Turner’s using his footspeed to his advantage. As one of the league’s fastest handful of players, Turner’s known for being dangerous on the basepaths. It’s hard to tell without a very detailed dive into video, but it’s possible the infielder’s getting more aggressive when it comes to turning singles into doubles.
That, or he’s just been getting a bit luckier on where he hits the ball.
Pick: Washington +1.5 (-105). Low confidence.
Minnesota @ Chicago (AL)
Yoan Moncada’s first full big-league season was fine. He was about a league-average hitter (97 wRC+), and he was adequate on defense (-1.5 DRAA), translating to a 2.0 fWAR. But in 2019, he’s broken out.
At the age of 24, Moncada’s slugging .526 with a 133 wRC+. He’s one home run away from reaching 20 on the year, putting 30 well within reach. His baserunning numbers are solid. His defensive numbers are solid. He’s hitting the ball just about as hard as anyone.
The White Sox won’t hit on every top prospect they acquired during the recent teardown. That’s just how it goes. But with Moncada, things look encouraging.
Pick: Chicago (AL) +1.5 (+105). Low confidence.
Cleveland @ Kansas City
It’s possible Alex Gordon will retire at the end of this year, and while he never became the Hall of Fame-caliber player many envisioned when he was picked second overall in 2005, he’s had quite a career. Between 2011 and 2014, he averaged 5.5 fWAR per season, and he played at a comparable level when healthy for the 2015 World Series champions.
Since 2015, Gordon’s production has noticeably slowed, but this year, he’s been back above average at the plate, with a 112 wRC+. It isn’t outstanding, but it’s solid, and it’s got him on pace for about three WAR. Given this improvement, it’s possible he’ll stick around, but he’s made it clear he doesn’t want to play anywhere but Kansas City. Which is the interesting piece of all of this: rather than take a one-year deal with a contender at a big discount to go after one more championship, Gordon appears poised to take a one-year deal with the Royals at a big discount to spend another season in Kauffman Stadium’s outfield. It isn’t surprising for a player to want to do this, but it’s interesting. And it helps highlight how rare it’s become for a player to be in this position in the first place.
Pick: Kansas City to win (+113). Low confidence.
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