Editor’s Note: Over the last two years or so, Joe has published picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. There have been moments of greatness (the Nationals winning the World Series last year, the first two months of last college basketball season). There have been moments of frustration (the second two months last college basketball season). Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 6% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high). That’s over 916 published picks, not including futures. And while 6% might not be a great annual return on overall investments, if you strategize well with timing, you can turn daily 6%’s into a whole lot more than 6% over the course of a year.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas Consensus, or the closest approximation available, at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. The blurbs aren’t always explanations of the picks—sometimes they are, but often they’re just notes related to the contest, to avoid redundancy. Data and predictions from FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks. Data from Baseball Savant and ESPN is also often used.
Ten good innings between the two picks last night, but the rain and the aura of Mookie Betts won out. For those of you who read these every day, don’t worry too much about the Astros futures with the expanded playoffs—yes, it doesn’t help, but the odds we got them at were still good even after adjusting for expansion, and there’s a possibility your book will push them. Keep an eye on things there.
Now, Opening Day:
Atlanta @ New York (NL)
Atlanta’s without both its top catchers (COVID symptoms, but negative tests), Johan Camargo (hamstring), and Will Smith (asymptomatic positive COVID test). They’re playing a Mets team that, believe it or not, finished ten games above .500 last year and is rolling the ball to Jacob deGrom today. Mike Soroka is not expected to repeat his 2.68 ERA from last season.
Still, there’s cause to be optimistic about Ronald Acuña Jr. and his band of merry men, and that cause isn’t just Acuña and the perpetual disastrous nature of the Mets.
While Soroka shouldn’t be expected to dominate like last year, he’s still projected as one of the eight best pitchers in a division loaded with starting pitching (FanGraphs’ depth charts projections order it, by FIP: deGrom, Scherzer, Strasburg, Corbin, Fried, Nola, Soroka, Stroman). The Mets’ lineup, while it lacks significant weak spots, isn’t overwhelming beyond the Alonso-Conforto combination. The Atlanta bullpen is stronger than it was for the first few months of last year, even with Smith sidelined. The Atlanta offense could be a force.
Tread lightly, but of all the shorter-than-even plays available today, this is one of the better ones.
Pick: Atlanta +1.5 (-155). Low confidence.
Toronto @ Tampa Bay
It’s been a while, so let this serve as a reminder: Charlie Morton had the fourth-best FIP in the league last year.
Yes, Hyun-Jin Ryu was sixth in that metric, and yes, the Blue Jays’ young core continues to mature, and yes, the expectation is that Austin Meadows is not going to be back yet from his coronavirus-instituted absence, but the Rays are playing at home with a pitching advantage, and it’s not unreasonable to expect an additional couple tenths of a percentage point in advantages they’ve cooked up over the last couple months.
Trust ‘em.
Pick: Tampa Bay to win (-138). Low confidence.
Colorado @ Texas
We don’t know yet how the new Globe Life Field will play. The word is that it’s more of a pitcher’s park, but that’s coming off of its predecessor being one of the two most notable hitter’s parks in the game. Yes, it won’t be as hot. Yes, center field is deeper. Yes, scoring wasn’t abundant in those two exhibitions. But with the power alleys more shallow, there’s reason to think it’ll still play at least slightly above-average in the scoring department, in which case these are favorable odds. Even plugging a perfectly average park factor into our over-under model gives us 9.3 expected runs tonight.
Pick: Over 9 (+100). Low confidence.
