Editor’s Note: For about two and a half years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. There have been moments of elation (the Nationals winning the 2019 World Series, the first two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). There have been moments of frustration (the Dodgers’ 2020 NLCS comeback, the second two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 0.5% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 1,480 published picks, not including pending futures. And while 0.5% might not sound enormous, you can do a lot with it over time.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
Arizona @ Chicago (NL)
The case for Zach Davies is that since May began, he’s got a 3.10 ERA, and FIP and xERA have had unusual difficulties predicting his ERA.
The case against Zach Davies is that even over that stretch, he’s walked nearly as many batters (52) as he’s struck out (62), and that he hasn’t made it through more than five innings in nearly a month.
Pick: Arizona to win +120. Low confidence.
Toronto @ New York (NL)
You know how people say things like, “The Mets rotation is held together by duct tape,” when a position group has a lot of injuries? Tylor Megill is that duct tape right now.
Over five starts, the rookie has contributed 24 innings, striking out 28 while only walking a decent-enough nine and posting a 3.71 FIP behind a 2.63 ERA.
Projections are deservedly more conservative about this guy, but it’s not unreasonable to expect him to turn in four or five low-scoring innings, and with the Mets’ bullpen fresh and a four-game lead in the division they’d really like to widen, the pieces are there for a low-scoring night in Queens.
Pick: Under 8.5 (+100). Low confidence.
