Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -5% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 3,381 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of 0.3% across 762 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us). Our ETA for having the overall number back profitable is currently November 7th, the likeliest date of a World Series Game 7 and the eve of both college basketball season and Election Day.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. For futures bets (in both sports and politics) and motorsports bets, odds are taken from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline as our best approximation of the Vegas consensus, which isn’t currently/accurately available online. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
Just MLB futures Monday through Friday these days. For context on these: We started the season with 520 units in our MLB futures portfolio, with another 520 in reserve in case we need them for hedging down the line.
ALCS
We continue to hammer the Blue Jays in this market, viewing them as the third-likeliest AL pennant winner. The trade deadline’s a consideration—the Yankees’ presumed aggression is probably part of why their odds are so short—but something to consider with this is how easy it is to patch together various parts of a roster. The Blue Jays’ biggest problem? Their bullpen. Relievers come at a premium because of their leverage, but that’s still an easier pickup than a top-four starter (not that the Blue Jays don’t have rotation issues, but we don’t feel too bad about a team whose top three’s combined FIP is 2.78).
Pick: Toronto to win +1200. Medium confidence.
World Series
Speaking of the trade deadline, who wants a World Series about as bad as the Yankees? The New York Mets. And they seem to lack that internal voice of reason some might argue holds Brian Cashman back (I don’t think it holds Brian Cashman back in the long run, but it does make this a fairly valuable bet). We published our ALCS portfolio rundown yesterday, so here’s the World Series one (profit/loss by unit for every winner, consolidated to the World Series market—so it doesn’t account for what we’d win/lose in various pennant and division scenarios), in order of FanGraphs’s World Series probability, which makes no assumptions regarding deadline activity:
- Los Angeles: -76
- Houston: +13
- New York (NL): +42
- New York (AL): -28
- Atlanta: +160
- Toronto: +63
- San Diego: +32
- Milwaukee: +46
- San Francisco: +134
- Tampa Bay: -76
- Philadelphia: -14
- Seattle: -76
- Chicago (AL): -76
- St. Louis: -76
- Boston: -24
- Minnesota: -76
- Cleveland: -76
There are a lot of holes, but they’re centralized on the bottom end of the probability spectrum, and we have only one huge liability within the nine likeliest champions. Hitting the Mets here helps with this all, especially because of the binary nature of their bye situation and Atlanta’s.
Pick: New York (NL) to win +800. Medium confidence.
