Editor’s Note: Over a sample size of 354 completed bets (this doesn’t include outstanding futures picks), Joe’s picks published here and back at All Things NIT, our former site, have an average return on investment of 6% when weighted by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high), meaning he’s been good enough to consistently make the people money.
As always, use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose following Joe’s picks. At the same time, though, you’re also responsible for any money you win.
Similarly, if you have a gambling problem, or even think you might have a gambling problem, get help. If you need help getting help, reach out to us via the contact information available on our About page.
Two picks today.
As always:
- Lines come from the Vegas Consensus at the time this is written, or the best approximation I can find of it online.
- Data from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, Baseball Savant, Spotrac, and ESPN is often used and/or cited.
- The writeups often aren’t justifications of the picks. Often, they’re instead just notes about something or someone related to the pick. This is because in general, picks are being made because the numbers I’m using indicate the pick is beyond a certain confidence threshold, and I’m not coming across enough red flags to pass on it.
Baltimore @ Boston
Baltimore rookie John Means has been startlingly effective in nearly 90 innings this year. His ERA’s a miniscule 2.94, and the 4.24 FIP behind it is nothing to be ashamed of.
One of the most impressive aspects of Means’ season, though, has been his consistency. In all starts but his first of the year, he’s lasted five or more innings. He’s walked as many as three batters only three times. He’s allowed more than three earned runs only twice.
Means doesn’t have any particularly outstanding skills (aside from a very effective changeup), and as the ERA/FIP gap shows, he’s likely due for some regression. Still, in him, the Orioles have found someone who’s as good a bet as any young starter to help fill an effective rotation going forward.
Pick: Baltimore +1.5 (+135). Low confidence.
Toronto @ Detroit
If you, like me, look at FIP first when evaluating a pitcher’s performance, you’d probably take Jordan Zimmermann (4.64) for a fairly effective starter so far this year. If, however, you look at his ERA (7.01)…things look grim.
What’s going on? Among pitchers with at least 50 innings so far this year, Zimmermann’s LOB% (58.3%) is the third-lowest. His opponents’ BABIP (.344) is the sixth-highest. To some degree, these things might be within a pitcher’s control, but still, it’s pretty obvious that Jordan Zimmermann is having some terrible luck.
This doesn’t mean he’ll necessarily have good luck over the rest of the season. That’s not how luck (according to numbers) works. But if his LOB% and BABIP start being normal, he’ll at least pitch more like the 4.64 pitcher FIP thinks he is than the 7.01 disaster his results have shown.
Pick: Under 10 (-105). Medium confidence.
