Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -5% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 3,379 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of 0.3% across 762 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us). Our ETA for having the overall number back profitable is currently November 7th, the likeliest date of a World Series Game 7 and the eve of both college basketball season and Election Day.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. For futures bets (in both sports and politics) and motorsports bets, odds are taken from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline as our best approximation of the Vegas consensus, which isn’t currently/accurately available online. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
Just MLB futures Monday through Friday these days. For context on these: We started the season with 520 units in our MLB futures portfolio, with another 520 in reserve in case we need them for hedging down the line.
ALCS
More new value to end the week.
Adding the White Sox as an ALCS option leaves us with only the Twins as a total hole among realistic (>0.2% likely, per FanGraphs) American League pennant contenders. As our current bets stand, our profit/loss in units from each possible winner:
- Houston: +38.5
- New York: -18.0
- Toronto: +13.5
- Tampa Bay: +26.0
- Boston: +4.0
- Chicago: +10.0
- Seattle: +26.0
- Minnesota: -42.0
- Cleveland: +50.0
We’re happy with that position.
Pick: Chicago to win +2500. Medium confidence.
NLCS
In the NL, we continue to see no value on the Dodgers or Cardinals, which is a scary place to be. With this addition to the Mets block, though, here’s where we’re at:
- Los Angeles: -38.0
- New York: +11.5
- Atlanta: +27.0
- Milwaukee: +9.5
- San Diego: +18.0
- San Francisco: +12.0
- Philadelphia: 0.0
- St. Louis: -38.0
We could address this by paying expensive prices for the Dodgers and possibly Cardinals, or by building larger positions on teams like Atlanta and New York at a low cost. We’ll do the latter.
Pick: New York to win +375. Medium confidence.
