Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –2% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 7,579 published picks, not including pending futures; and an average return on investment, per pick, of +2% across 2,268 completed high and medium-confidence picks. The low confidence picks are the problem. Most of our picks are in the low confidence category.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. We rely heavily on FanGraphs for all our MLB action. We rely heavily on Nate Silver’s presidential election model for our election futures.
Active markets today: MLB moneylines and futures.
Single-day MLB bets: Last year, we finished the season up about 8%, betting strictly moneylines. We’ve tried a similar approach this year. We’re 96–84–2 so far, down 6.15 units. We’ve mostly been treading water lately, but we haven’t been able to sustain making up significant ground.
MLB futures: We have a great history with these, though the last two years we’ve only made small profits. In both 2019 and 2021, I believe we recorded better than a 50% ROI. In 2020, we lost about 25% of our portfolio. We began this season with 750 units in our portfolio, with the intent being to spend 500 of those over the regular season and keep 250 in reserve for the postseason and/or hedging & arbitrage opportunities. We place two medium-confidence bets most weekdays until sometime in September when the scenarios become more specific.
Colorado @ New York (NL)
Terribly expensive, but the Mets are playing well, their bullpen’s fresh enough, and Sean Manaea has been particularly effective, while Tanner Gordon isn’t much to be scared of from the Rockies.
Pick: New York to win –270. Low confidence. (Gordon and Manaea must start.)
NL Central
Markets and the narrative remain a little low on the Cardinals. The roster has its flaws, but the pitching is real, and if we’re in a roster–has–its–flaws competition, the Brewers aren’t exactly the 1927 Yankees on paper.
Pick: St. Louis to win +500. Medium confidence.
AL East
Speaking of the Yankees, let’s talk about the Orioles. Getting swept by the Cubs right now is troubling. The O’s are still in a great position, but even this major Yankees’ slide leaves Baltimore just two games up in the standings. That’s within striking distance this weekend. It’s even more in reachable over the rest of the year. The Orioles’ youth is mostly to their benefit, but it does amplify the uncertainty.
Pick: New York to win +115. Medium confidence.
