Editor’s Note: Joe would downplay how successful this is, but over a sample size of 334 completed bets (this doesn’t include outstanding futures picks), his picks published here and back at All Things NIT, our former site, have an average return on investment of 6% when weighted by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high), meaning he’s been good enough to consistently make the people money.
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Three picks today.
As always:
- Lines come from the Vegas Consensus at the time this is written, or the best approximation I can find of it online.
- Data from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, Baseball Savant, Spotrac, and ESPN is often used and/or cited.
- The writeups often aren’t justifications of the picks. Often, they’re instead just notes about something or someone related to the pick. This is because in general, picks are being made because the numbers I’m using indicate the pick is beyond a certain confidence threshold, and I’m not coming across enough red flags to pass on it.
New York (NL) @ Miami
With Pete Alonso entering the MLB ranks with a bang and Jeff McNeil turning heads, the Mets’ third-best position player (by fWAR) has drawn less attention than he has the last few years.
But Michael Conforto is still performing well.
Worth 1.6 fWAR to date, with a 121 wRC+, Conforto—now in his fifth major league season, though only his second full one—is demonstrating a consistent ability to produce at the major league level.
Conforto isn’t doing anything remarkable at the plate. There isn’t a specific number that jumps out. Instead, he’s been an all-around good hitter—an anchor in a sneakily strong Mets lineup. Under club control through 2022, he looks to play that role for the next few years, in the midst of a solid young core around which the Mets have the opportunity to build.
Pick: Over 8 (-115). Low confidence.
San Francisco @ Milwaukee
Since the beginning of June, the Giants are 19-14, despite playing only two games against inferior opponents (by overall win percentage).
This isn’t the most hopeful situation in the world. The team’s core is still aging, at the stage in the rebuild where good performance is less valuable in wins than it is in netting prospects at the deadline.
Still, there have been some encouraging developments on the youth front, including with tonight’s starter, 24-year-old righty Shaun Anderson.
Anderson—a former third-round pick by the Red Sox—was labeled as the Giants’ top pitching prospect when he debuted, but that designation comes with the caveat that the Giants don’t have the world’s best farm system. Still, since debuting, Anderson has proved solid, entering tonight with a 4.38 FIP over ten starts, which have lasted an average of five and a half innings. He doesn’t strike out many batters (only 13.3% of them, one of the lowest such numbers in the MLB), but he’s gotten the job done.
Anderson doesn’t project to be an ace, but most rotations fit five guys, and if Anderson can keep things up as his career progresses, the Giants will be at least 20% of the way there.
Pick: San Francisco +1.5 (-120). Low confidence.
Atlanta @ San Diego
Dallas Keuchel’s 2019 is only four starts old, but early returns are positive. His first two outings weren’t great—six earned runs over nearly eleven combined innings, with three homers thrown in there—but in each of the last two, he’s lasted seven or more innings while allowing only two to score.
Perhaps most encouraging is that his walk rate in the small sample is only 5.6%, his lowest such number since 2015, when he won the Cy Young. Keuchel’s always gotten good results on balls in play, thanks to his extreme ground ball profile, which keeps the list of things that can go wrong pretty small. Keeping walks from being an issue is a great sign for the Braves.
Pick: Under 9 (-120). Low confidence.
