Editor’s Note: Over a sample size of 773 completed bets (this doesn’t include outstanding futures picks), Joe’s picks published here and back at All Things NIT, our former site, have an average return on investment of 11% when weighted by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high). This, compared to other picks consistently published online, is very good. It’s also good when compared to conventional annual investments, and instead of taking a year to bring that return, it’s taking between three hours and seven months. In short, Joe’s got a good track record.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose following Joe’s picks. At the same time, though, you’re also responsible for any money you win.
Similarly, if you have a gambling problem, or even think you might have a gambling problem, get help. If you need help getting help, reach out to us via the contact information available on our about page.
Two picks today, including a future.
As always:
- Lines come from the Vegas Consensus at the time this is written, or the best approximation I can find of it online.
- Data and predictions from KenPom, FanGraphs, Baseball Savant, Team Rankings, and ESPN is/are often used and/or cited.
- The blurbs often aren’t justifications of the picks. Often, they’re instead just notes about something or someone related to the pick. Something that interests me. I don’t explain the picks because in general, the rationale behind each pick is the same, so it would be boring to say over and over again that the numbers I use project a good return on investment and I see no red flags significant enough to make me hold off.
Future: NCAA Men’s Basketball National Champion
Too much shouldn’t be made of one game, and while Michigan State’s victory over Illinois last night was certainly thorough, Illinois is merely a bubble team.
Still, there’s value to be had on Michigan State here, and if they play as well on Sunday, when they host Michigan, as they’ve played their last three games, odds this favorable on them will probably vanish. This is the same team that entered the year picked by many to win the national championship. If they start ripping through the Big Ten, they might quickly return to that status. Grab them now.
Pick: Michigan State +1400. Low confidence.
Temple @ Tulsa
Temple likes to use its fast break. Tulsa’s been adept so far at slowing teams to something below their normal pace.
Even if that doesn’t work, though, the under has other paths. Temple might have the best defense in the AAC, and Tulsa’s a turnover risk. If the Owls do successfully speed things up, and score while doing so, that might not mean Tulsa comes along for the ride.
Pick: Under 137.5 (-110). Low confidence.
