Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –0.7% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 6,703 published picks, not including pending futures; and an average return on investment, per pick, of +2.2% across 2,268 completed high and medium-confidence picks. The low confidence picks are the problem. Most of our picks are in the low confidence category.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. We use kenpom heavily to make college basketball picks. We use FPI heavily to make NFL futures picks, but not spreads and totals.
Active markets today: Just college basketball.
Single-day college basketball bets: On the season, we’re 54–52 and we’re down 10.03 units. We’re currently mostly betting moneyline favorites, so our win–loss record doesn’t line up with our net loss.
Saint Joseph’s @ St. Bonaventure
Part of what we do with these moneyline favorites is decide which favorites not to take. Tonight, that’s Wisconsin. It’s not that we like Michigan State. On paper, they’re showing tendencies of a team that’s about to get a big “we’re back” win, but there are red flags, like how they’ve won three games in a row (might lack urgency), and how difficult they sometimes make the winning look (winning on the road is easier when you’re a sharp team). Instead, we’re laying off that game because the red flags on Wisconsin are too large. The Badgers haven’t received much doubt lately and they beat Michigan State once already this year. Those things can affect focus or pull the market in the wrong direction.
We say all that to say: There aren’t any major read flags on the Bonnies. They’re kind of bad, but that’s part of what adds the value here. Saint Joe’s is coming off a breathless win over UMass. Besides that win, they’ve struggled outside of the greater Philadelphia area. We like Bona in or around Olean.
Pick: St. Bonaventure to win –147. Low confidence.
Stanford @ Cal
Cal is a fun team to pull for this year. They have guys who can look great at basketball, and Mark Madsen is easy to like. Are they a better team than Stanford? No. Is their ceiling higher than Stanford’s? No. But both these teams are wacky enough to believe a lot of outcomes tonight, and Stanford still looks like it might be riding for a fall. We kind of like Cal to be the course corrector.
Pick: Cal to win –147. Low confidence.
