Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -1% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 4,611 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +3% across 1,605 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. KenPom is used in making college basketball picks. FiveThirtyEight’s SPI is heavily used in making soccer futures picks. ESPN’s FPI is heavily used in making NFL futures picks.
VCU @ Richmond
VCU’s come on strong of late, and to some extent that’s come after the return of Adrian Baldwin, their most efficient (by KenPom) offensive player who gets consistent minutes. Given the speed of their ascent, though, it’s far from certain they’re a better team than Richmond. Home court should diminish when the game’s across town, and VCU is probably the better team, but the possibility this is a hot streak and not who VCU suddenly is looms a little large to believe in the Rams tonight.
Pick: Richmond -1.5 (-110). Low confidence.
Villanova @ St. John’s
Villanova beat St. John’s in December in…a game where Jordan Longino played very well. Longino went down three games later and is yet to return, and while he’s definitely a role player and nothing more than that, Villanova needs those. They were struggling with him and they’ve looked bad without him. We don’t think tonight’s when they figure it out.
Pick: St. John’s -4 (-110). Low confidence.
Boise State @ New Mexico
The Broncos are on fire, this surge coincides with the return of Marcus Shaver, and while they were not this good with Marcus Shaver in November and December—which does provoke some questions—there’s probably something to be said for having been in position of needing these tough conference road wins before. They’re playing well right now, they have some practice approaching these situations, we like them to get it done tonight in the Pit.
Pick: Boise State +2.5 (-110). Low confidence.
